I wonder why Mr. Zelensky refuses to consider not being part of NATO, when it’s quite clear Russia would never attack them if they just stayed out of NATO.
A better question is what gave Zelensky the idea that Ukraine would ever be a part of NATO, when NATO officially privately told him that wasn’t going to happen, or that NATO would have any interest in protecting Ukraine.
Well, that’s strange. It’s almost as if NATO is an organization comprised of many individuals, one of which might have had little interest in it, but that with current events and popular interest in membership, his country could be guaranteed membership but for the ongoing war and Russia’s thinly-veiled threats of nuclear apocalypse.
Even you must admit that, given the antagonism towards Russia from NATO, they might be willing to let them in just to fuck with Moscow, no? Not that there’d be warm fuzzy feelings towards the Ukrainians, it would really just be to spit Russia.
The way NATO works is that new members must be invited into NATO by unanimous consensus. So, if there is at least one NATO member that says Ukraine won’t be invited, that means Ukraine wont’ be invited. It’s that simple.
It’s not that simple though. If that one member is anyone but the US (or possibly the UK), then the rest lean heavily on the objector until they get what they want. Veto power only exists for those powerful enough to wield it or masochistic enough to suffer decision to use it.
Sure, NATO is ultimately a US project to keep Europe in its sphere of influence. However, the leaders of European countries need to decide whether they will work in the interest of their people or the interest of their American masters.
As the fallout from the economic war intensifies everyone associated with this mess will eventually become toxic politically. I expect that we’ll see significant political changes in Europe with EU and ultimately NATO falling apart as individual countries will start pulling out from these organizations.
Yes, NATO is largely a project to keep Europe in its sphere of influence. Yes, the fallout from the sanctions will not be pretty… if this coming winter is cold, all bets are off. We could see the geopolitical magnetic poles reverse.
But don’t pretend that Russia hasn’t shat the bed with their ill-conceived adventurism. Or that it’s anything less than a grim tragedy, Putin has blood on his hands, along with everyone who either helped him do it or who had the power to stop him and didn’t try.
Can Russia manage to somehow be less toxic than the blowback from the sanctions that punish it? I suppose there are some not-impossible scenarios where this would be the case, but I wouldn’t bet on it and I definitely wouldn’t bet on it until I’ve seen a forecast showing a once-in-a-century mini-ice-age winter. Right now, for most companies and most countries, the economic impact of the sanctions are light… in the 2-7% range are what I’m reading. It’s a hefty tax, but not an insufferable one so far. I guess you have to watch the game of chicken to know for sure who will swerve first.
It’s very clear that Russia hasn’t shat the bed, and no serious experts analyzing this situation think that. Russia just showed the whole world that NATO is impotent, they strengthened their tied with China and India, and will now have an economy that’s completely out of western control. Russia is also breaking western financial system as the globally dominant system, and internationalizing the rouble. What you don’t seem to understand that around half the world supports Russia right now. It’s not Russia that’s being isolated long term, but the west.
Russia already went through far worse crashes in the 90s and 2014, if you think that the economic impact from western sanctions today is going to break Russia then I have bridge to sell you.
Russia just showed the whole world that NATO is impotent
If it were Poland instead of Ukraine, and there was no response (or even just a lackluster one), that would certainly show that. But Ukraine isn’t a NATO member. You’d see the same had Russia invaded New Zealand… you wouldn’t get to say “NATO is impotent, they didn’t even bother to protect this non-member in a non-Atlantic ocean”.
If anything, Russia should be worried that so many NATO members and their populaces were itching to somehow find an excuse to get in the fight. I’m not sure how the US air force would fare if they were hiding in caves like the Al Quaeda, but big columns of armor? It’d be like a video game. And the chance for pilots to become aces again (well, supposing Moscow ever sends a plane in the air)?
they strengthened their tied with China and India
I’ll give you India. But China? That’s more like Russia has had the leash padlocked to its neck. America is experiencing the same too, a little at a time, so I’m not saying we’re doing any better in that regard… but oof. Wouldn’t be bragging about China.
Russia is also breaking western financial system as the globally dominant system
Big claims. Don’t worry, I’ll let you have 18 months or so for them to bear out before I chuckle.
What you don’t seem to understand that around half the world supports Russia right now.
The former Soviet republics that know better than to fuck with Moscow support Russia. And a dozen or two don’t-matters hate the US enough (and maybe western Europe too) enough to want to undermine it, which isn’t the same thing at all.
Russia already went through far worse crashes in the 90s and 2014,
Yeh, and if that were the only thing coming its way, it’d probably shrug it off. They’re really in a position of “things can’t get much worse” in the literal sense, so how could the economic implosion hurt them?
It’s starting to look like their military is all a sham. At this point, nothing other than the nuclear deterrent is keeping China from deciding it wants a few million extra square miles. What happens if everyone starts wondering about how well the warheads have been maintained? Maybe China decides that it will pay for the oil in bullets instead of rubles. What the fuck could Russia even do about it, especially if the polkovniks decided to sell off the hardware needed to activate those?
For that matter, who would the US even side with? Do you think we’d come to the rescue, or would we pop some popcorn and watch the fireworks?
I wonder why Mr. Zelensky refuses to consider not being part of NATO, when it’s quite clear Russia would never attack them if they just stayed out of NATO.
A better question is what gave Zelensky the idea that Ukraine would ever be a part of NATO, when NATO officially privately told him that wasn’t going to happen, or that NATO would have any interest in protecting Ukraine.
Well, that’s strange. It’s almost as if NATO is an organization comprised of many individuals, one of which might have had little interest in it, but that with current events and popular interest in membership, his country could be guaranteed membership but for the ongoing war and Russia’s thinly-veiled threats of nuclear apocalypse.
Even you must admit that, given the antagonism towards Russia from NATO, they might be willing to let them in just to fuck with Moscow, no? Not that there’d be warm fuzzy feelings towards the Ukrainians, it would really just be to spit Russia.
The way NATO works is that new members must be invited into NATO by unanimous consensus. So, if there is at least one NATO member that says Ukraine won’t be invited, that means Ukraine wont’ be invited. It’s that simple.
It’s not that simple though. If that one member is anyone but the US (or possibly the UK), then the rest lean heavily on the objector until they get what they want. Veto power only exists for those powerful enough to wield it or masochistic enough to suffer decision to use it.
Sure, NATO is ultimately a US project to keep Europe in its sphere of influence. However, the leaders of European countries need to decide whether they will work in the interest of their people or the interest of their American masters.
As the fallout from the economic war intensifies everyone associated with this mess will eventually become toxic politically. I expect that we’ll see significant political changes in Europe with EU and ultimately NATO falling apart as individual countries will start pulling out from these organizations.
Yes, NATO is largely a project to keep Europe in its sphere of influence. Yes, the fallout from the sanctions will not be pretty… if this coming winter is cold, all bets are off. We could see the geopolitical magnetic poles reverse.
But don’t pretend that Russia hasn’t shat the bed with their ill-conceived adventurism. Or that it’s anything less than a grim tragedy, Putin has blood on his hands, along with everyone who either helped him do it or who had the power to stop him and didn’t try.
Can Russia manage to somehow be less toxic than the blowback from the sanctions that punish it? I suppose there are some not-impossible scenarios where this would be the case, but I wouldn’t bet on it and I definitely wouldn’t bet on it until I’ve seen a forecast showing a once-in-a-century mini-ice-age winter. Right now, for most companies and most countries, the economic impact of the sanctions are light… in the 2-7% range are what I’m reading. It’s a hefty tax, but not an insufferable one so far. I guess you have to watch the game of chicken to know for sure who will swerve first.
It’s very clear that Russia hasn’t shat the bed, and no serious experts analyzing this situation think that. Russia just showed the whole world that NATO is impotent, they strengthened their tied with China and India, and will now have an economy that’s completely out of western control. Russia is also breaking western financial system as the globally dominant system, and internationalizing the rouble. What you don’t seem to understand that around half the world supports Russia right now. It’s not Russia that’s being isolated long term, but the west.
Russia already went through far worse crashes in the 90s and 2014, if you think that the economic impact from western sanctions today is going to break Russia then I have bridge to sell you.
If it were Poland instead of Ukraine, and there was no response (or even just a lackluster one), that would certainly show that. But Ukraine isn’t a NATO member. You’d see the same had Russia invaded New Zealand… you wouldn’t get to say “NATO is impotent, they didn’t even bother to protect this non-member in a non-Atlantic ocean”.
If anything, Russia should be worried that so many NATO members and their populaces were itching to somehow find an excuse to get in the fight. I’m not sure how the US air force would fare if they were hiding in caves like the Al Quaeda, but big columns of armor? It’d be like a video game. And the chance for pilots to become aces again (well, supposing Moscow ever sends a plane in the air)?
I’ll give you India. But China? That’s more like Russia has had the leash padlocked to its neck. America is experiencing the same too, a little at a time, so I’m not saying we’re doing any better in that regard… but oof. Wouldn’t be bragging about China.
Big claims. Don’t worry, I’ll let you have 18 months or so for them to bear out before I chuckle.
The former Soviet republics that know better than to fuck with Moscow support Russia. And a dozen or two don’t-matters hate the US enough (and maybe western Europe too) enough to want to undermine it, which isn’t the same thing at all.
Yeh, and if that were the only thing coming its way, it’d probably shrug it off. They’re really in a position of “things can’t get much worse” in the literal sense, so how could the economic implosion hurt them?
It’s starting to look like their military is all a sham. At this point, nothing other than the nuclear deterrent is keeping China from deciding it wants a few million extra square miles. What happens if everyone starts wondering about how well the warheads have been maintained? Maybe China decides that it will pay for the oil in bullets instead of rubles. What the fuck could Russia even do about it, especially if the polkovniks decided to sell off the hardware needed to activate those?
For that matter, who would the US even side with? Do you think we’d come to the rescue, or would we pop some popcorn and watch the fireworks?
They shat the bed.