Yes, NATO is largely a project to keep Europe in its sphere of influence. Yes, the fallout from the sanctions will not be pretty… if this coming winter is cold, all bets are off. We could see the geopolitical magnetic poles reverse.
But don’t pretend that Russia hasn’t shat the bed with their ill-conceived adventurism. Or that it’s anything less than a grim tragedy, Putin has blood on his hands, along with everyone who either helped him do it or who had the power to stop him and didn’t try.
Can Russia manage to somehow be less toxic than the blowback from the sanctions that punish it? I suppose there are some not-impossible scenarios where this would be the case, but I wouldn’t bet on it and I definitely wouldn’t bet on it until I’ve seen a forecast showing a once-in-a-century mini-ice-age winter. Right now, for most companies and most countries, the economic impact of the sanctions are light… in the 2-7% range are what I’m reading. It’s a hefty tax, but not an insufferable one so far. I guess you have to watch the game of chicken to know for sure who will swerve first.
It’s very clear that Russia hasn’t shat the bed, and no serious experts analyzing this situation think that. Russia just showed the whole world that NATO is impotent, they strengthened their tied with China and India, and will now have an economy that’s completely out of western control. Russia is also breaking western financial system as the globally dominant system, and internationalizing the rouble. What you don’t seem to understand that around half the world supports Russia right now. It’s not Russia that’s being isolated long term, but the west.
Russia already went through far worse crashes in the 90s and 2014, if you think that the economic impact from western sanctions today is going to break Russia then I have bridge to sell you.
Russia just showed the whole world that NATO is impotent
If it were Poland instead of Ukraine, and there was no response (or even just a lackluster one), that would certainly show that. But Ukraine isn’t a NATO member. You’d see the same had Russia invaded New Zealand… you wouldn’t get to say “NATO is impotent, they didn’t even bother to protect this non-member in a non-Atlantic ocean”.
If anything, Russia should be worried that so many NATO members and their populaces were itching to somehow find an excuse to get in the fight. I’m not sure how the US air force would fare if they were hiding in caves like the Al Quaeda, but big columns of armor? It’d be like a video game. And the chance for pilots to become aces again (well, supposing Moscow ever sends a plane in the air)?
they strengthened their tied with China and India
I’ll give you India. But China? That’s more like Russia has had the leash padlocked to its neck. America is experiencing the same too, a little at a time, so I’m not saying we’re doing any better in that regard… but oof. Wouldn’t be bragging about China.
Russia is also breaking western financial system as the globally dominant system
Big claims. Don’t worry, I’ll let you have 18 months or so for them to bear out before I chuckle.
What you don’t seem to understand that around half the world supports Russia right now.
The former Soviet republics that know better than to fuck with Moscow support Russia. And a dozen or two don’t-matters hate the US enough (and maybe western Europe too) enough to want to undermine it, which isn’t the same thing at all.
Russia already went through far worse crashes in the 90s and 2014,
Yeh, and if that were the only thing coming its way, it’d probably shrug it off. They’re really in a position of “things can’t get much worse” in the literal sense, so how could the economic implosion hurt them?
It’s starting to look like their military is all a sham. At this point, nothing other than the nuclear deterrent is keeping China from deciding it wants a few million extra square miles. What happens if everyone starts wondering about how well the warheads have been maintained? Maybe China decides that it will pay for the oil in bullets instead of rubles. What the fuck could Russia even do about it, especially if the polkovniks decided to sell off the hardware needed to activate those?
For that matter, who would the US even side with? Do you think we’d come to the rescue, or would we pop some popcorn and watch the fireworks?
If it were Poland instead of Ukraine, and there was no response (or even just a lackluster one), that would certainly show that. But Ukraine isn’t a NATO member. You’d see the same had Russia invaded New Zealand… you wouldn’t get to say “NATO is impotent, they didn’t even bother to protect this non-member in a non-Atlantic ocean”.
If anything, Russia should be worried that so many NATO members and their populaces were itching to somehow find an excuse to get in the fight.
Given that NATO trained and armed Ukraine which had by far the largest military in Europe after Russia, I really can’t imagine why Russia would be worried here.
It’d be like a video game.
Just like it was in Syria where US stopped flying bombing missions once Russia put S400 anti aircraft systems there.
I’ll give you India. But China? That’s more like Russia has had the leash padlocked to its neck. America is experiencing the same too, a little at a time, so I’m not saying we’re doing any better in that regard… but oof. Wouldn’t be bragging about China.
It’s unarguable that Russia is much better off relying on China than the west which has been openly hostile towards Russia for its entire existence. Whatever problems they might have in their relationship will be far lesser than the problems Russia has now.
Big claims. Don’t worry, I’ll let you have 18 months or so for them to bear out before I chuckle.
The former Soviet republics that know better than to fuck with Moscow support Russia.
Ah yes, former soviet republics like China, India, and South Africa.
Yeh, and if that were the only thing coming its way, it’d probably shrug it off. They’re really in a position of “things can’t get much worse” in the literal sense, so how could the economic implosion hurt them?
You really do live an alternate reality bud. What economic implosion are you talking about here, last I checked the rouble was trading at the pre-invasion levels already.
It’s starting to look like their military is all a sham.
It’s starting to look like you’ve been guzzling propaganda. Go watch that interview with an actual US military expert and see what he thinks.
They shat the bed.
You’ve illustrated in this thread that you have absolute and utter lack of knowledge of the subject. However, I don’t really need to convince you of anything here because reality will break through soon enough and even delusional people will have to start grappling with it.
Yes, NATO is largely a project to keep Europe in its sphere of influence. Yes, the fallout from the sanctions will not be pretty… if this coming winter is cold, all bets are off. We could see the geopolitical magnetic poles reverse.
But don’t pretend that Russia hasn’t shat the bed with their ill-conceived adventurism. Or that it’s anything less than a grim tragedy, Putin has blood on his hands, along with everyone who either helped him do it or who had the power to stop him and didn’t try.
Can Russia manage to somehow be less toxic than the blowback from the sanctions that punish it? I suppose there are some not-impossible scenarios where this would be the case, but I wouldn’t bet on it and I definitely wouldn’t bet on it until I’ve seen a forecast showing a once-in-a-century mini-ice-age winter. Right now, for most companies and most countries, the economic impact of the sanctions are light… in the 2-7% range are what I’m reading. It’s a hefty tax, but not an insufferable one so far. I guess you have to watch the game of chicken to know for sure who will swerve first.
It’s very clear that Russia hasn’t shat the bed, and no serious experts analyzing this situation think that. Russia just showed the whole world that NATO is impotent, they strengthened their tied with China and India, and will now have an economy that’s completely out of western control. Russia is also breaking western financial system as the globally dominant system, and internationalizing the rouble. What you don’t seem to understand that around half the world supports Russia right now. It’s not Russia that’s being isolated long term, but the west.
Russia already went through far worse crashes in the 90s and 2014, if you think that the economic impact from western sanctions today is going to break Russia then I have bridge to sell you.
If it were Poland instead of Ukraine, and there was no response (or even just a lackluster one), that would certainly show that. But Ukraine isn’t a NATO member. You’d see the same had Russia invaded New Zealand… you wouldn’t get to say “NATO is impotent, they didn’t even bother to protect this non-member in a non-Atlantic ocean”.
If anything, Russia should be worried that so many NATO members and their populaces were itching to somehow find an excuse to get in the fight. I’m not sure how the US air force would fare if they were hiding in caves like the Al Quaeda, but big columns of armor? It’d be like a video game. And the chance for pilots to become aces again (well, supposing Moscow ever sends a plane in the air)?
I’ll give you India. But China? That’s more like Russia has had the leash padlocked to its neck. America is experiencing the same too, a little at a time, so I’m not saying we’re doing any better in that regard… but oof. Wouldn’t be bragging about China.
Big claims. Don’t worry, I’ll let you have 18 months or so for them to bear out before I chuckle.
The former Soviet republics that know better than to fuck with Moscow support Russia. And a dozen or two don’t-matters hate the US enough (and maybe western Europe too) enough to want to undermine it, which isn’t the same thing at all.
Yeh, and if that were the only thing coming its way, it’d probably shrug it off. They’re really in a position of “things can’t get much worse” in the literal sense, so how could the economic implosion hurt them?
It’s starting to look like their military is all a sham. At this point, nothing other than the nuclear deterrent is keeping China from deciding it wants a few million extra square miles. What happens if everyone starts wondering about how well the warheads have been maintained? Maybe China decides that it will pay for the oil in bullets instead of rubles. What the fuck could Russia even do about it, especially if the polkovniks decided to sell off the hardware needed to activate those?
For that matter, who would the US even side with? Do you think we’d come to the rescue, or would we pop some popcorn and watch the fireworks?
They shat the bed.
It shows that Russia can act unilaterally, and NATO will not engage Russia directly. You don’t have to take my word for it though. Go ahead and listen to what a former Marine Corps intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector has to say about it.
Given that NATO trained and armed Ukraine which had by far the largest military in Europe after Russia, I really can’t imagine why Russia would be worried here.
Just like it was in Syria where US stopped flying bombing missions once Russia put S400 anti aircraft systems there.
It’s unarguable that Russia is much better off relying on China than the west which has been openly hostile towards Russia for its entire existence. Whatever problems they might have in their relationship will be far lesser than the problems Russia has now.
Western financial experts aren’t chuckling, but I’m sure you know better. https://www.reuters.com/business/imf-warns-russia-sanctions-threaten-chip-away-dollar-dominance-ft-2022-03-31/
Ah yes, former soviet republics like China, India, and South Africa.
You really do live an alternate reality bud. What economic implosion are you talking about here, last I checked the rouble was trading at the pre-invasion levels already.
It’s starting to look like you’ve been guzzling propaganda. Go watch that interview with an actual US military expert and see what he thinks.
You’ve illustrated in this thread that you have absolute and utter lack of knowledge of the subject. However, I don’t really need to convince you of anything here because reality will break through soon enough and even delusional people will have to start grappling with it.