When people ask whether or not they believe ghosts or aliens exist, they typically point to something that is somewhat tangible as proof such as “the government says it is real” or “this video explains it all”. I think these responses are valid, but with low confidence in what they’re trying to prove. A government can simply be making stuff up and a video explaining it could of simply been misinformed into some false truth.
On the contrary, I think they exist because of statistical improbability. I see that there are an uncountable amount of videos claiming to have recorded proof for ghosts and aliens. Assuming that 99% of them are hoaxes, clout chasers, or misidentified phenomena, that still leaves 1% of all those videos to be true. As long as the percentage is not 100%, it means that there is solid proof out there, weak in confidence or not, it’s a lead to the truth.
By this logic, if I post 10000 videos claiming 2+2=5, it becomes true by ‘statistics’?
To answer your question though, statistics are not predetermined independently from the truth. Truth is the basis and the number of claims for any statement does not change that. By assuming that 1% of all sightings are real, you already assumed that aliens must exist. The probability for aliens being real under the assumption that aliens are real is 100%, but you just made the premise up. This is not how statistics work.
There are many examples from the past, like witches, werewolves, vampires, giants, … People used to claim their existence but not anymore. By your reasoning they must have existed back then but suddenly they dont anymore?
Also how come ghosts and aliens exist almost exclusively in the US? There are almost no reports in any other country.
Just for fun, Ill try to come up with an example using your ‘statistics’, I wonder if you can argue against it without invalidating the reasoning in your post.
There are 8bn people on earth. They are all reporting that they themselves are human. Even if 99.999% of those reports are true, that leaves 80,000 non-humans amongst them.
TL:DR lies dont become true just because they are being told often.