Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
I’ve got a feeling we’ll see Bush v. Gore style recount shenanigans or worse. Trumpist “stop the steal” people have begun to infiltrate the election process, right?
Right, and it’s possible that what’s really happened outdistances what’s publicly known.
I still like to believe that our systems are resilient against such shenanigans, that Georgia Court just threw out some sketchy b******* that Trump affiliated election officials were trying to pull. Literally every Trump court case fell on its face last time around.
But I’m a lot more worried now. When the history of this election’s written, something we never thought of is going to turn out to be one of the most important events in history.
I’m not saying this will literally happen, but this is kind of what I think: some random election clerk in North Carolina is allowed to trigger a freeze on the counting of votes based on their ‘reasonable suspicion’, and after recounts and delays, it starts trending Kamala’s way, so they never complete the account. The Supreme Court invents some new legal doctrine that says we can’t allow the paralysis of one state to prevent the determination of a winner, the court throws it to the House of Representatives, the house holds the vote open for 16 hours until Trump wins, with God knows what violence and rallies and stuff happening outside.
It’s gonna be a shitshow.
Before all ballots are counted, Trump declares himself a winner and starts sounding the alarm about illegitimate counts. Trump then contests battleground states and has enough alternate electors that the final score gets escalated to the Supreme Court, who grants Trump the win while they “figure it all out”. They declare widespread “issues” with the election and localized protests ensue. Trump declares martial law and tells the police to “be tough”. Several injuries and deaths set more riots and protests. Trump orders the national guard to help with crowd control. An overzealous soldier opens with live fire on the crowd, killing several due to stampedes and general chaos.
Trump blames chaos on Democrats and claims illegal immigrants were behind the violence, begins his mass deportation exercise. Numerous non immigrants are rounded up “as sympathizers” and taken to holding facilities in Texas and several other border states where they are held indefinitely without trial.
Trump creates a tip line to report “illegal aliens” and people start reporting their neighbours and anyone else they find “suspicious”. People are always keeping their eyes out and keeping their lives to themselves out of fear they may be reported.
Trump and his regime create a committee to oversee and overhaul elections “due to all that bad corruption” and suggests a moratorium on elections until “they figure it out”.
They don’t ever figure it out.
So basically “how to speedrun dictatorship”
Very plausible. If you need any recipes for when the California vegetables stops coming HMU, I’ve made a project out of it.
We will either get Fascism or Fascism Lite™
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
I wouldn’t rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people’s beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth…
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there’s a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
You could keep adding to that.
People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
Maybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
I’m almost positive Trump wins with how close all the swing states are now and how he’s improving in polling (what the actual fuck people?!) the closer we get to the election.
I’m also almost positive we will not know for sure on election night as I absolutely expect R controlled states to drag their feet and declare “irregularities” that they need to investigate if they don’t like the way things are going.
I hope it will not be Florida of 2000 election all over again, but in a massive scale.
It’s insane, Gore won by several thousand votes, if not tens of thousands.
Yeah but Gores brother wasn’t governor of Florida! Who evers brother is governor wins, thems the rules.
Such a weird rule, but can’t disagree with the supreme court.
Whoever wins … the country will fight about the result for the next four years and completely obscure any reasonable debate or conversation about anything of importance like inflation, wealth inequality, war, the military industrial complex or creeping fascism.
If America doesn’t get its act together during this election … it’s just taking another step towards becoming a failed state and will break apart within the next decade or two. But it won’t be a war or anything too dramatic … it will just look and sound like a never ending slapfest between shouting children and crying babies who threaten each other but never actually do anything except leave the room with all their toys.
I’m in a swing state with an abortion measure on the ballot, and while all the polls claim it’s close, I’m not really sure they are properly accounting for the number of voters that have been activated by the possibility of enshrining pro-choice into the state constitution.
These polling strategies are complex and a lot of thought goes into them, but they rarely can account for uncommon circumstances that increase voter turnout in local or state elections and how that will effect the national election.
While this is entirely personal reexperience bias, I also wonder how effective these polls are at reaching a representative survey group. I know at least on my phone basically all survey calls and texts go to spam and I wonder if older, more conservative voters are getting overrepresented due to their likelihood of not having those kinds of spam filters in place.
Polsters do not call random people. They will call as many people under 30 as they have to to get a representative sample. They have quotas for different parties, age groups, races, etc. And purposefully target the ones they want and verify with the person that demographic info is right while doing the questions. Atleast good scientific polls will do this. Not all polls are created equal.
Thin narrow margin for Harris, several swing states are a new Florida of leaning and ballot counting taking forever. Then right wingers get upset, try to sue as they also then shoot local people for not sieg heiling Trump.
Harris enters office in Jan, makes some statements of how this is horrid, says she’ll do something to help it, but won’t solve the issues that make people consider being fascists who shoot mosques.
From there we’ll see the first 100 days of her term, and if the Senate and House are in favor, we might get some good bills in for a short term solutions to the long term diseases of American necrotic brain damage of conservatism.
For most people, nothing changes. Anti-trans bills are still in place, putting abortion back will be near impossible, and police will still shoot first ask questions second. Maybe some debts are cleared, weed is maybe legalized finally, but the county is the same as it was under Biden.
Harris by a landslide. I’m optimistic and am choosing to have faith in at least some of mankind.
Trump is power hungry while simultaneously old and simple minded. I remember Jan 6. I followed live feeds throughout and immediately after. I watched Trump’s speech, the riot it caused. I watched Ashli Babbitt die on some guy’s go pro.
I keep asking myself how in the hell Trump is even still in the running. What the fuck is wrong with his supporters?
Please get out and vote Harris! Harris is the way forward. She’s not Trump but also SHE IS NOT BIDEN. We need women in power. Look what men have done <gestures broadly>. She happens to be a good one, of course a politician, but she’s won my confidence. Over Trump it was an easy win.
Harris is the way forward. She’s not Trump but also SHE IS NOT BIDEN.
Yeah…
Asked whether there is anything she would have done differently than Biden over the past four years, Harris demurred.
“There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact,”
“You asked me what is the difference between Joe Biden and me — that will be one of the differences. I’m going to have a Republican in my Cabinet,”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/08/harris-biden-the-view-00182883
She’s going to lose. Not because people love Trump (though many do unfortunately) but because she refuses to seperate herself from the old man actively commiting genocide and herself leans to the right trying to pick up Trump supporters on issues like immigration, when they will never switch and she just disillusions people who care about those issues in the left.
Edit: forgot to source quote
I think she will win but I don’t think it will be a landslide. I hope so, but there’s a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump’s crap.
a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump’s crap.
True. Unarguably.
Counterpoint though: There are a bunch of Americans that do not. I know many. I know Republicans that are voting Harris.
Global thermonuclear war.
Would you like to play a game?
Love a War Games reference.
Don’t make me hope.
Whoever wins…
We lose.
The one comment that unites both liberals and conservatives in their hatred of the left.
Both of you can GTFO with your negativity, imo.
This is like two stumbling drunk parents arguing over who’s better to drive everyone home and telling the kids “shut up you’re not helping!” when they suggest taking a cab.
Harris Wins.
MAGA throws a giant hissy fit, tries about three more coups, goes around intimidating election officials and offices to states that validated the election. Going to spend another 3 years arresting and jailing even more of these idiots until we have an even more prison population problem.
Trump declares once again that he didn’t lose, despite all the lies saying he’ll admit that he lost if it was fair.
Someone attempts to assassinate Harris during Inauguration. Someone attempts to assassinate Biden because they believe that if he doesn’t pass the torch to Harris, then it’ll prevent a Harris presidency.
Harris will presumably do a good job but like with nearly all Democratic presidents since Obama, the best that they’re good at in Modern-Day America is just temporary hold-over solutions but nothing groundbreaking that’ll last long-term.
Harris will probably be fighting with windbags leftover from GOP in Senate, House, Congress and Supreme Court because that’s how they’ve been. No different than Obama’s terms and Biden’s term.
And then we’ll spend 4 years basically just building up until the next shitty election.
Everyone worth less than 8 figures will lose.
Little else will change. Regardless of figurehead.
2016 2: electric boogaloo. Harris loses PA and MI due to campaigning on continued genocide, leaving her with a popular vote victory but electoral college loss.
That’s what I’d bet on if I were a betting man.
