• lennybird@lemmy.world
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    8 months ago

    Wrote this before and I’ll write it again. People need to understand the broader context here:

    Tough for Biden to balance between:

    • Leaning too heavily into Israel and siding with genocide.

    • Leaning too heavily against, and being accused of being pro-Hamas.

    Worse, if Biden withdraws all aid to Israel and then Israel is hit with another terrorist attack, manufactured or not, that’s the end of Biden. I think we can all agree that right-wing media propaganda is very effective and the ads would write themselves.

    Within the electorate resides Jewish Americans who still largely support Israel by the polling, and the progressives and Palestinian Americans (a far smaller voting bloc).

    The best Biden is going to manage in toeing the line is singling out Netanyahu (who himself is unpopular in Israel) instead of Israel itself and actions like this.

    The risk obviously being that if Biden loses this election, the guy who wouldn’t just indirectly but likely directly commit genocide against Palestinians would come in and you certainly wouldn’t hear the words, “indiscriminate bombing” from Trump’s facial sphincter.

    • abbotsbury@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago
      • Leaning too heavily into Israel and siding with genocide.

      • Leaning too heavily against, and being accused of being pro-Hamas.

      So the choices are siding with genocide, and merely being accused of being pro-Hamas?

      Seems like a clear choice, since accusations of being pro-Hamas get flung around for merely wanting to genocide Palestinians just more slowly.

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        The caveat being missed here is that aid to Israel is also contingent on their defense. If the long-time precedent for aid to Israel is withdrawn and more Jews die, how do you think that is going to bode for the votes of — let me check — 7.6 million Jewish Americans? Trump gets in, and then what? Biden fails the purity test and everyone critical of Biden pats themselves on the backs as Trump steamrolls Palestinians not just indirectly but directly?

        • Crikeste@lemm.ee
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          8 months ago

          Vote for genocide, because if you don’t there’s gonna be more genocide. Y’all doing backflips to cover your violent beliefs.

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Ah yes, that’s a completely accurate and fair description of the choice at hand and totally 100% not an obvious straw-man fallacy, leaving aside the cute little purity pyrrhic victory you’re setting yourself up for.

            • Crikeste@lemm.ee
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              8 months ago

              It’s very easy for me to be against genocide. Seems hard for you. 🤷🏼‍♂️

              • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                8 months ago

                I’m completely for being against genocide!

                I’m just forward-thinking and very much against it for the next 4 years, let alone next 8 months. Some people see a few more chess-moves ahead than others, I guess. Seems hard for you.

    • go_go_gadget@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      Worse, if Biden withdraws all aid to Israel and then Israel is hit with another terrorist attack, manufactured or not, that’s the end of Biden. I think we can all agree that right-wing media propaganda is very effective and the ads would write themselves.

      Just scream “vote blue no matter who” at the pro-Israel Biden supporters.

      I’m sick of people not saying the quiet part out loud: If every time there is a choice between doing the things progressives and leftists want the threat of moderate and liberal voters abandoning the party then we’re fucked anyway. Even if you’re optimistic and say “No no, the number of progressives and leftists is growing! We just have to be patient!” Guess what happens when progressives and leftists finally start winning primaries? That’s right, moderates and liberals will abandon the party.

      There no point in delaying any longer. If the moderates and liberals will abandon the party if Biden stopped sending weapons to Israel then let’s get it over with.

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        Entropy is a thing.

        What I mean by that is it’s far, far easier to smash a puzzle than to put it back together, let alone to incorporate new pieces. The damage done by Trump in merely 4 years could not be reversed if you got AOC with Bernie in there in 8 years let alone possibly 4. At this juncture, with the fragility of our system and the courts already stacked, maintaining some semblance of stability is overwhelmingly more crucial than expecting massive leaps.

        I’m all for going full anti-Israel; but that doesn’t change the fact that every single political advisor is pointing Biden to precarious polling data; that blindly withdrawing all aid to Israel is simply NOT a popular position going into the election — at least yet.

        • go_go_gadget@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          Nothing you said negates the uncomfortable reality: If moderates and liberals refuse to compromise with leftists and progressives then fascism can’t be avoided. Do you want it now or later?

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Unfortunately it goes both ways; the difference is the “moderates and liberals” are the majority of the coalition while the progressives as the minority also know better enough to know what’s at stake from playing chicken with the moderates who probably can’t comprehend the game you’re even trying to threaten. I don’t buy into argument that it’s “fascism now or later,” — for that remains entirely speculative.

                • go_go_gadget@lemmy.world
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                  8 months ago

                  Okay. Then verbalize those disagreements in the context of my arguments so I don’t have to repeat myself.

                  For example

                  I don’t buy into argument that it’s “fascism now or later,” — for that remains entirely speculative.

                  How? If they won’t compromise with leftists and progressives now they won’t compromise when leftists and progressives start dominating primaries. I said this in my original comment.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    I’m pretty sure they are compromising? Are you saying Biden’s position is the same as it was the days after October 7th? Because it’s clearly not.

                    I’m not really integrated in hypotheticals insomuch as the reality at hand: this is election year. The primaries are over. Biden had moved on the issue of Israel already. And we (as well as Ukraine and Palestine) cannot afford as a nation to go through another 4 years.

                    So give me an argument that reflects polling that doesn’t shoot Democrats in the foot in November.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          Then they’re shit at their jobs. This is public research polling, which usually lags behind internal private research.

          Gallup Link

          Good advisors would have been telling him support is trending down for months at this point. If you’re going to govern by polls, you should be getting ahead of them. Not throwing out bullshit self certification stuff for military aid to cover for the genocidal regime you’re illegally sending arms to.

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Isn’t that exactly what Biden is doing? Biden is shifting his stance inline with the polls and it’s working. While I do appreciate a leader who is willing to be bold and lead from the front regardless of public opinion because they can be very influential — I can see why they would be very nervous about getting ahead of the polls.

            For as I said: If he does something drastic like withdrawing aid to Israel and Israel gets hit with another October 7th-level attack — manufactured or legitimate — he’d be done for. There’s no suddenly stopping the inertia we’ve had for Israel as a foreign policy position for decades that has largely shared bipartisan support.

            And I mean come on, really? Do you really think you genuinely know better than his advisors and strategists and that they’re “shit at their jobs”? It’s a cute, confident thing to say… But if you’re really doubling down on that, perhaps you should contact them or look for a job opportunity. What’s more is that while your polling shows people disapprove of Israel’s actions, what we should do in response is the obvious follow-up, and withdrawing aid to them likely doesn’t share the same popularity. I wouldn’t want to be in Biden’s position or his strategists.

            • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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              8 months ago

              Any advisor that would lie to the president is a bad advisor. That’s a ridiculous thing to argue over. That’s not my ego, or me thinking I’m better.

              And yes when Israel crosses the line the military aid becomes illegal. There’s no exception for “we’ve been doing it for so long”.

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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                  8 months ago

                  It’s a response to what you said. Read the thread if you need context. I’m not going to restate it for you.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    Sorry I just don’t get what “lie” you’re referring to. Anyways, I’m getting nothing of value from this conversation.

    • olivebranch@lemmy.ca
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      8 months ago

      Oh no, he will be accused of being pro-Hamas. Just like when you criritize him you are accused of being pro-Trump, or if you critize evil NATO countries are doing, you are called pro-Russian. If people are that stupid to not see this clear tactic that everyone who critiques me must support my enemies, then you should maybe they shouldn’t use the same tactic when it suits them.

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago
        1. It’s a waste of time — Especially in an election year with so much on the line and post-primaries — to criticize Biden and instead better to criticize the groups who continue to support Israel. When the polls shift, the administration will shift… As has already occurred.

        2. I don’t give a fuck if you do, so long as you vote and support Biden in November. Palestinians and Ukrainians are counting on us, and the guaranteed-alternative is significantly-worse. I just had some other fool tell me they’re voting 3rd-party, so they are clearly supporting the enemies. I hope you’re smarter.

        • olivebranch@lemmy.ca
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          8 months ago
          1. They don’t shift policies, they shift marketing. They will continue to support Israel because they are treating you with Trump and you have to vote for them whatever they do. So change is never going to happen.
          2. Either vote third party or don’t waste your time voting. You are getting nothing better with democrats. Trump is a candidate that was placed there by the democrats so they can have a better chance in the elections. In next elections they will simply move the goal post and get someone even worse for Republican party and whatever you are voting against in these elections will be the democrat position in the next one.
          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Either vote third party or don’t waste your time voting. You are getting nothing better with democrats. Trump is a candidate that was placed there by the democrats so they can have a better chance in the elections. In next elections they will simply move the goal post and get someone even worse for Republican party and whatever you are voting against in these elections will be the democrat position in the next one.

            Ladies and gentlemen, a wedge-driving operative seeking to undermine Democrats and get Trump into office. There is literally zero evidence that “Trump is a candidate that was placed there by Democrats”. There is zero historical evidence voting third party does anything more than get the worse of two evils in office — and Ukrainians and Palestinians would much prefer Biden over Trump any day.

            This is the rhetoric of someone either not either not familiar with the political system, or intentionally trying to undermine the left by opening the door for conservatives.

              • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                8 months ago

                Nobody in the entire country would’ve disagreed with that strategy at the time, for quite literally everyone including Republicans thought Trump would doom the party. Hindsight is 20/20

                That, however isn’t the same as saying Trump is a Democratic plant colluding in disguise lol.

            • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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              8 months ago

              There is zero historical evidence voting third party does anything more than get the worse of two evils in office

              no such evidence is possible: you can’t prove a counterfactual. you can’t know who the worse evil would be. further it’s not clear that so-called “third party” voters actually impact elections at all unless their candidate wins.

              • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                8 months ago

                No, we can. 3rd parties have been around for decades and won nothing and only exacerbated the goals of said parties by undermining the only party that has tangible results.

                You prove my point.

                • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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                  8 months ago

                  3rd parties have been around for decades and won nothing and only exacerbated the goals of said parties by undermining the only party that has tangible results.

                  this simply isn’t true and reflects a myopic view of history. so-called third parties have been with us almost since the inception of the us, and have accomplished things inconceivable to modern politicians.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    It simply is true. Even the longest serving Independent in congressional history caucuses and ran as a Democrat.

                    But do tell what any third party from Libertarians to the Green Party have accomplished, relative to Democrats for the working class.

                    Have you even heard of Nader or Perot?

            • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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              8 months ago

              This is the rhetoric of someone either not either not familiar with the political system, or intentionally trying to undermine the left by opening the door for conservatives.

              false dichotomy. they may be familiar with the political system (even more than you or i), and not believe the same things you do. they may be a leftist. you are making up attacks on their person instead of dealing with the substance of their claims.

                • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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                  8 months ago

                  that’s a thought-terminating cliche like saying it’s common sense. if you can’t support your position, that’s no reason to go off attacking other people as malevolent or incompetent.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    My original statements remain largely untouched; it’s not my issue you deflected the aforementioned points. Why proceed further?

        • dumpsterlid@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          It’s a waste of time — Especially in an election year with so much on the line and post-primaries — to criticize Biden and instead better to criticize the groups who continue to support Israel. When the polls shift, the administration will shift… As has already occurred.

          It is clear as day that the only thing actually making Biden think twice about unconditionally supporting the mass slaughter of Palestinians is that he might actually lose the election because his opinions are so unpopular and brutal on the Palestinian genocide.

          Right now is THE TIME to grind everything about the Democratic Party to a halt until Biden gets the message that halting the supply of weapons to an ongoing genocide is a non-negotiable aspect of getting leftist (and muslim) voters. He doesn’t give a shit though that much is clear, once the election is over if he wins than all the pressure to actually do anything other than say empty words goes away.

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            As I’ve repeatedly pointed out, the problem is this can only go so far before it works against him. All Democrats are doing is splitting his attention between two groups — and if he pivots too much to one side, he risks alienating an arguably even LARGER group of voters.

            So as I said, the best bet is to focus not on finger-wagging to Biden, but finger-wagging to the actual Pro-Israelis and undecided (who are 1/3 of the electorate). Thus if you want to continue influencing Biden, continue influencing the polls themselves and Biden will reflect that.

            He doesn’t give a shit though that much is clear, once the election is over if he wins than all the pressure to actually do anything other than say empty words goes away.

            I think it’s just the opposite. I think similar to the Afghan withdrawal once an election has passed he will take a very Anti-Israeli stance while amplifying his support for Ukraine as well.

    • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      It would not be the end for Biden. That’s hyperbole. Also why are we pressuring anti genocide people to come out and vote regardless, but taking it for granted that pro genocide people can’t be pressured at all.

      You know who you’re never going to get to vote for Biden again? The Muslim communities that are actually in mourning right now because they know people dying in Gaza. The same ones that are key voting groups in the Rust Belt. Which is the same area that Trump used to win in 2016.

      The Republicans are already calling him terrorist pedophile. Doing something to stop the GOP from running baseless attack ads is useless.

      The only one trying to lose this election is Biden. There are legions of progressives ready to hold their noses and vote for him. But he keeps running to the right. And we’ll keep staying home.

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        You’re saying he’d be fine if a terrorist attack occurred after withdrawing aid to Israel? Sorry I just can’t agree with that. He’d be toast and the 7 million Jewish Americans would turn on him in a second, amplified all the more by right-wing propaganda that doesn’t just influence Republicans but the centrists and even many Democrats.

        He’s doing quite the opposite from running to the right. He’s completely shifted his position from lockstep support for Israel to letting ceasefire votes go through and publicly calling out Netanyahu.

        Biden already signaled he’d be harder on Israel than Trump. There really isn’t any more that needs to be said. It’s holding the nose and supporting Biden now for the next 8 months or suffer 4 years of the far, far worse guy.

    • TokenBoomer@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      It shouldn’t be this difficult for an actual leader to stop politicking and do the right thing. This is like Bill Clinton ignoring the Rwandan genocide. Or Reagan collaborating with the Guatemalan genocide. Or Nixon ignoring the Bengali genocide and directing the Cambodian genocide that enabled the Khmer Rouge genocide. On second thought, Biden’s an exemplary United States President. /s

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        Whenever you give me a data-driven solution to the problem I proposed with the 7.6 million Jewish Americans who are sympathetic to Israel and Biden definitely needing their vote more so than the 160,000 Palestinian Americans, you let me know.

            • goferking0@lemmy.sdf.org
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              8 months ago

              There wasn’t a point. It was a denial that anything need to be done because the data says electoral politics are more important than stopping another genocide.

              They also seem to think all jews in the United States are pro Isreal based on saying 8 million would be angered enough to vote republican if anything happened to Israel, which is also ridiculous to say while asking for data driven anything.

              • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                8 months ago

                Even if Biden withdrew all aid to Israel, the genocide persists. So, now what?

                They also seem to think all jews in the United States are pro Isreal based on saying 8 million would be angered enough to vote republican i

                There you go again with the straw-man fallacies. What’s heavily ironic about this is I’ve heard ad nauseum about the 160,000 Palestinian Americans and what they might do should Biden not change his position. I already gave the PEW data indicating a sizable chunk of those 8 million are indeed supportive of Israel and no matter how you cut it, there’s a greater risk to Biden’s reelection.

                But moreover think about just how short-sighted your thinking is here. Even if Biden stops the aid now and it backfires for Biden’s reelection, then Trump gets in — where will you be? Will you be celebrating and patting yourself on the back because Biden shot himself in the foot while Trump steamrolls Palestinians?

                I think you just might.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    There ya go with those strawman fallacies, again!

                    Such a strong fighter for these 8 months. Yet don’t seem to care whatsoever about the consequences for Palestinians (or Ukrainians for that matter) for the next 4 years. How curious.

            • lennybird@lemmy.world
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              8 months ago

              It’s intentional. Best guess is these are either wedge-driving trolls, or very young and naive sub-20-year-olds full of idealism but lacking a particular degree of foresight.

                • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                  8 months ago

                  If they dodge the arguments presented and double-down with bullshit accusations and shitty obvious strawman fallacies, then yes, absofuckinglutely.

        • TokenBoomer@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          Sometimes doing the right thing is more important than an election. If LBJ had taken your advice, Civil Rights would never have happened in America.

          A brilliant political analyst, Johnson foresaw the consequences of his civil rights legislation on the day he signed it into law. He is said to have remarked: “We’ve lost the south for a generation.” historical data

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Apples and oranges in my view; for Is there any law that Biden can sign right now?

            Is there anything Biden can do right now that won’t be immediately reversed by Trump and orders-of-magnitude worse?

            Hence why under these circumstances, in my opinion, following the polling data and ensuring election is paramount.

            In the meantime we should all be focused not on criticizing Biden but targeting the pro-Israeli voters and trying to sway them. If you change them, the polling changes, and so too will Biden’s position.

            And ultimately that’s exactly what we’ve seen over the last couple of months.

            • TokenBoomer@lemmy.world
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              8 months ago

              You’d sell your mother into slavery to get Biden elected, that much is obvious. You have no moral framework for any of your so-called “principles,” your only concern is winning. Which is precisely how we got to this point after the third-way Democrats compromised with neoliberalism by allowing corporate donations to dominate their party. Compromising your humanity by settling with the lesser evil is still evil.

              • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                8 months ago

                Hahaha I’m sorry, what? Now you’re just going off the deep end.

                I’d rather ensure my mother doesn’t live with Trump as president for another 4 years. It’s not good for her blood pressure.

                Unfortunately you just seem far too short-sighted to comprehend the big picture, here. You’d rather manufacture purity tests for the Democrats even if that means holding the door open for literal evil. Classic pyrrhic victory.

                Lambast Democrats all you want. Yet Every Single progressive advancement we’ve had in this country has come through the Democratic party.

                • TokenBoomer@lemmy.world
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                  8 months ago

                  I’m not saying to not vote for Biden to prevent the fascism of Trump. I will. And I have to make peace with that, if I can. But I’m not gonna lie to myself and others to justify this administrations actions regarding Palestine. Genocide should never be condoned, even for poll numbers.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    I entirely sympathize with that and think this is a very grounded comment. From my view I feel Democrats are losing the information war and our ties to Israel are too deep to just uproot overnight without disastrous consequences.

                    I weigh the pros/cons of: Biden cutting all ties and aid overnight with Israel versus the risk to popularity and losing the election and handing the keys to Trump. Put another way: if this wasn’t election season and polls weren’t this tight, I think Biden would’ve dropped Israel much faster and absorbed the risk. (sort of like withdrawing from Afghanistan far away from an election).

                    It is imperative every one of us keep pushing against the Israeli narrative so we alter the polling in favor of walking away from Israel.

        • rottingleaf@lemmy.zip
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          8 months ago

          with the 7.6 million Jewish Americans who are sympathetic to Israel

          This is false, they are split and it’s much fewer votes to be lost. Maybe none, maybe even some gained.