Not an expert on this at all but I feel like it’s less of “the human race is going to die out” vs the owner class needs cheap labor and bodies for war to continue infinite growth.
My running theory is in the United States, Republican’s obsession with abortion is tied to the fact they need poor and broken families to pump out kids for future cheap labor and the prison industrial complex to make a nation function moving forward. That and the gray sunami of a upside down pyramid with not enough young to take care of the older generations (I think Japan and China are experiencing this currently).
Well in Russia it’s about replacing all the kids and men dying in Ukraine. The Russian losses are staggering and Russia is basically throwing their people into a meat grinder.
If only a fraction of a percent are coming home “after the war” Russia is in big big trouble regardless of population growth or shrinkage due to other causes.
In the USA I’d agree it’s about cheap labor. They don’t want to let the Mexicans in too so gotta keep those white babies flowing.
Russia has like 500 million people, they could send 499 million to their deaths and they would be fiiiiiine.
Most of their economy is oil and gas extraction which doesn’t require a very large labor force. They can just outsource exploration to Europeans corporations anyway.
No, their population peaked in 94 at about 150M.
They definitely have a serious population/demographic crisis. Arguably it’s one of the reasons Putin decided now was the moment to escalate in Ukraine, before it’s too late. Also why they’re taking Ukrainian children.
The US has an easy way out of the demographic trap through immigration. Countries like China and Japan don’t have that because no one wants to immigrate to China and Japan basically doesn’t allow it at all.
In germany the sheinking population or rather the aging population is causint serious issues for the pension system. The current working population is paying the pensions for the current pensioners. So what happens is fewer and fewer people pay for more and more people, leading to my generation not being able to get state pension, instead needing to get private plans
A bit embarrassing to admit this but the first time I was in Germany I was mildly shocked by the number of non-ethnic Germans I saw speaking German. Yes I am aware that immigration has increased there.
That requires long term planning that I doubt they are capable of or willing to engage in. It takes a minimum of 16 years to go from conception to worker in the developed world. In practice over 20 if you want them to be able to make real money for you.
Who plans for 16 years ahead? No one. The horizon is way too long. No one is going to lobby a politician today for an investment that might pay off that far in the future. You could get about 7% return on an index fund this year alone and instead you want to try for the slim possibility that you can pay a worker less in 16 freaken years? Companies usually won’t go beyond even a 5 year investment, 8 if they are a utility. This would be an investment that is literally over twice as risky as a nuclear power plant.
It’s a problem for everyone because the societal changes that would adjust for a population decline and inverted population pyramid aren’t favored by the upper class.
We’d need to invest in doctors and nursing staff properly, something a ton of places are struggling with. We’d need to make the job more appealing by both increasing pay substantially and improving conditions. We need to get rid of student debt overall, but definitely for medical professionals that care for the elderly.
We also need to decrease inequality and use redistributed wealth to fund the retirements of younger generations, but that’s more complicated and the more uphill battle.
Population collapse for the human race isn’t so much a problem, we’ll weather through it as a species. For an economy, population decline is very not good though. You need working age people to support the young and old, as well as everything else your taxes go to.
These fears over population collapse are the weirdest form of mass hysteria I’ve ever seen.
Not an expert on this at all but I feel like it’s less of “the human race is going to die out” vs the owner class needs cheap labor and bodies for war to continue infinite growth.
My running theory is in the United States, Republican’s obsession with abortion is tied to the fact they need poor and broken families to pump out kids for future cheap labor and the prison industrial complex to make a nation function moving forward. That and the gray sunami of a upside down pyramid with not enough young to take care of the older generations (I think Japan and China are experiencing this currently).
Well in Russia it’s about replacing all the kids and men dying in Ukraine. The Russian losses are staggering and Russia is basically throwing their people into a meat grinder.
If only a fraction of a percent are coming home “after the war” Russia is in big big trouble regardless of population growth or shrinkage due to other causes.
In the USA I’d agree it’s about cheap labor. They don’t want to let the Mexicans in too so gotta keep those white babies flowing.
Russia was facing demographic collapse before it invaded Ukraine. The war has only worsened its outlook.
Russia has like 500 million people, they could send 499 million to their deaths and they would be fiiiiiine.
Most of their economy is oil and gas extraction which doesn’t require a very large labor force. They can just outsource exploration to Europeans corporations anyway.
No, their population peaked in 94 at about 150M. They definitely have a serious population/demographic crisis. Arguably it’s one of the reasons Putin decided now was the moment to escalate in Ukraine, before it’s too late. Also why they’re taking Ukrainian children.
Are you a hammer? Because I think you just nailed it.
Politicians have straight up said it’s a reason they are against abortion…
The data follows: https://www.epi.org/publication/economics-of-abortion-bans/
But we agree it’s only safe abortions they’re blocking, right?
The US has an easy way out of the demographic trap through immigration. Countries like China and Japan don’t have that because no one wants to immigrate to China and Japan basically doesn’t allow it at all.
In germany the sheinking population or rather the aging population is causint serious issues for the pension system. The current working population is paying the pensions for the current pensioners. So what happens is fewer and fewer people pay for more and more people, leading to my generation not being able to get state pension, instead needing to get private plans
A bit embarrassing to admit this but the first time I was in Germany I was mildly shocked by the number of non-ethnic Germans I saw speaking German. Yes I am aware that immigration has increased there.
That requires long term planning that I doubt they are capable of or willing to engage in. It takes a minimum of 16 years to go from conception to worker in the developed world. In practice over 20 if you want them to be able to make real money for you.
Who plans for 16 years ahead? No one. The horizon is way too long. No one is going to lobby a politician today for an investment that might pay off that far in the future. You could get about 7% return on an index fund this year alone and instead you want to try for the slim possibility that you can pay a worker less in 16 freaken years? Companies usually won’t go beyond even a 5 year investment, 8 if they are a utility. This would be an investment that is literally over twice as risky as a nuclear power plant.
It isn’t an existential problem, but it’s still a very big problem, not just for the upper class, but for everyone.
No, it’s not, you’re a gullible tool.
It’s a problem for everyone because the societal changes that would adjust for a population decline and inverted population pyramid aren’t favored by the upper class.
We’d need to invest in doctors and nursing staff properly, something a ton of places are struggling with. We’d need to make the job more appealing by both increasing pay substantially and improving conditions. We need to get rid of student debt overall, but definitely for medical professionals that care for the elderly.
We also need to decrease inequality and use redistributed wealth to fund the retirements of younger generations, but that’s more complicated and the more uphill battle.
Not from the perspective of someone whose only strength in the war in Ukraine is the number of people.
Most of the time, yes. When you’re throwing a large portion of your population into a blender, it makes more sense.
Population collapse for the human race isn’t so much a problem, we’ll weather through it as a species. For an economy, population decline is very not good though. You need working age people to support the young and old, as well as everything else your taxes go to.
The issue is that demographic collapse can and almost certainly will have devastating economic consequences for the countries facing it.