You’re going to have hundreds of millions of migrants coming into our countries because they literally have no other place to exist. Of course that will lead to wars, oppression, and genocide. Will the collapse be so bad that there is no human civilization left? I can’t imagine that. But will the civilization look anything like what we’d hope or find acceptable today? Hard to imagine that, either.
That being said, scientists have been hyperbolic for decades because no one gives a fuck unless you use terms like the end of civilization / life as we know it. They only have so many tools to get people to pay attention and from what I can tell none of them have worked, other than I feel there’s an uptick in people choosing not to have kids because the future looks so bleak.
Scientists have not been hyperbolic. If anything, so far, they’ve been very cautious abut their statements.
I still remember reading headlines about “likelihood of global warming” then “probably caused by human activities” because 90% level of confidence is not enough, you need more data until you can reach 95% or 98% confidence before boldly writng “most probably”.
But in their “probably” they predicted we would see more floods, droughts, violent storms, all of these happening one after the other causing devastation.
And Ô surprise: we see floods, droughts and storms following each other and causing devastation. Yet our leaders will claim “no one could have predicted all of that would happen at once!”.
Now they start telling us our civilization could collapse (“could” must be what? 75% confidence level???)
We’re going to spend 20-25 years claiming they exagerate, another 20-25 years saying “well, they maybe right, but we can’t change things too fast because that would be unreasonable and the people would not accept it”.
By the time, we will start reading articles stating no matter what we do now, we can only push out the end a bit, but we’re doomed. And the first reactions will be “those damned scientists always exagerate and use hyperboles”.
Yes, to be fair I meant science journalism. Scientists themselves seem quite content to research and collate data and offer dispassionate answers, which is why few people read the academic papers. Other than that clarification, we are in agreement.
Scientists haven’t been hyperbolic. However articles like this one most definitely are, and they do a disservice to the scientists’ claims by doing so. All in the name of getting a few extra clicks.
The present is too bleak for many people to choose to have kids. It’s simply unaffordable in terms of time and money for a lot of people. Rent is unaffordable, both partners have to work but daycare is unaffordable, food and medical are expensive, schools are increasingly fucked up. Then you add the future uncertainty (or rather, probability of dystopia), and why would anyone do that?
It’s either “the sky is falling” and nothing happens (because of all the work we actually did, like y2k, the ozone hole, or acid rain) or “this might be a problem someday” and nothing gets done.
Y2K was a real threat, and it was with significant coordinated effort that it was resolved.
The ozone hole was (and still is) a significant threat, which was mitigated somewhat by a coordinated effort to stop using CFCs. Unfortunately, there are many more gases that cause huge threats to the protection that the upper atmostphere provides, which have by in large gone unacknowledged by human civilisation as a whole.
Personally, I work in high voltage electricity, and I’m acutely aware of the problems with SF6 as a greenhouse gas (insufficiently regulated under the 1992 Kyoto protocol) and how the exponential growth of SF6 electrical switchgear and subsequent inevitable leaks contributes to a hugely under-represneted threat, which is subject to a 20 year delay for the gas to transition from leaks on the surface to gases distributed throuhgout upper atmosphere.
There are indeed very serious and immediate threats facing humanity, but this article does little to draw attention to them, instead distracting with bullshit hyperbole that is only backed up by a url that leads to:
Of course that will lead to wars, oppression, and genocide.
This isn’t scientists being hyperbolic, you’ve invented that on your own just now.
That being said, scientists have been hyperbolic for decades because no one gives a fuck unless you use terms like the end of civilization / life as we know it.
No, they haven’t. If you actually read scientific literature you will find a balanced argument that generally takes into account the previous estimations, regardless of whether or not they were proven false or correct. The only thing you find when you look into the claims of this Vice.com article is:
Mass forced movement of people and cultures have always led to wars, oppression, and genocide. Sometimes it starts with those that are moving and sometimes it starts with those that are already there, but it happens all the time.
Just to add on to what you’ve said here, basically we could potentially have Israel vs Gaza all over the world. That situation is horrific and there are no good guys, just bad guys and victims on both sides. I don’t want to see that all over the world.
You’re going to have hundreds of millions of migrants coming into our countries because they literally have no other place to exist. Of course that will lead to wars, oppression, and genocide. Will the collapse be so bad that there is no human civilization left? I can’t imagine that. But will the civilization look anything like what we’d hope or find acceptable today? Hard to imagine that, either.
That being said, scientists have been hyperbolic for decades because no one gives a fuck unless you use terms like the end of civilization / life as we know it. They only have so many tools to get people to pay attention and from what I can tell none of them have worked, other than I feel there’s an uptick in people choosing not to have kids because the future looks so bleak.
Scientists have not been hyperbolic. If anything, so far, they’ve been very cautious abut their statements.
I still remember reading headlines about “likelihood of global warming” then “probably caused by human activities” because 90% level of confidence is not enough, you need more data until you can reach 95% or 98% confidence before boldly writng “most probably”.
But in their “probably” they predicted we would see more floods, droughts, violent storms, all of these happening one after the other causing devastation.
And Ô surprise: we see floods, droughts and storms following each other and causing devastation. Yet our leaders will claim “no one could have predicted all of that would happen at once!”.
Now they start telling us our civilization could collapse (“could” must be what? 75% confidence level???)
We’re going to spend 20-25 years claiming they exagerate, another 20-25 years saying “well, they maybe right, but we can’t change things too fast because that would be unreasonable and the people would not accept it”.
By the time, we will start reading articles stating no matter what we do now, we can only push out the end a bit, but we’re doomed. And the first reactions will be “those damned scientists always exagerate and use hyperboles”.
Yes, to be fair I meant science journalism. Scientists themselves seem quite content to research and collate data and offer dispassionate answers, which is why few people read the academic papers. Other than that clarification, we are in agreement.
Scientists haven’t been hyperbolic. However articles like this one most definitely are, and they do a disservice to the scientists’ claims by doing so. All in the name of getting a few extra clicks.
The present is too bleak for many people to choose to have kids. It’s simply unaffordable in terms of time and money for a lot of people. Rent is unaffordable, both partners have to work but daycare is unaffordable, food and medical are expensive, schools are increasingly fucked up. Then you add the future uncertainty (or rather, probability of dystopia), and why would anyone do that?
It’s either “the sky is falling” and nothing happens (because of all the work we actually did, like y2k, the ozone hole, or acid rain) or “this might be a problem someday” and nothing gets done.
Y2K was a real threat, and it was with significant coordinated effort that it was resolved.
The ozone hole was (and still is) a significant threat, which was mitigated somewhat by a coordinated effort to stop using CFCs. Unfortunately, there are many more gases that cause huge threats to the protection that the upper atmostphere provides, which have by in large gone unacknowledged by human civilisation as a whole.
Personally, I work in high voltage electricity, and I’m acutely aware of the problems with SF6 as a greenhouse gas (insufficiently regulated under the 1992 Kyoto protocol) and how the exponential growth of SF6 electrical switchgear and subsequent inevitable leaks contributes to a hugely under-represneted threat, which is subject to a 20 year delay for the gas to transition from leaks on the surface to gases distributed throuhgout upper atmosphere.
There are indeed very serious and immediate threats facing humanity, but this article does little to draw attention to them, instead distracting with bullshit hyperbole that is only backed up by a url that leads to:
This isn’t scientists being hyperbolic, you’ve invented that on your own just now.
No, they haven’t. If you actually read scientific literature you will find a balanced argument that generally takes into account the previous estimations, regardless of whether or not they were proven false or correct. The only thing you find when you look into the claims of this Vice.com article is:
Dude my observations go back to before there was an internet so no, vice.com plays no role in my worldview.
While I agree with your prejudiced observations, you did reply to my comment on a vice.com article.
Mass forced movement of people and cultures have always led to wars, oppression, and genocide. Sometimes it starts with those that are moving and sometimes it starts with those that are already there, but it happens all the time.
Just to add on to what you’ve said here, basically we could potentially have Israel vs Gaza all over the world. That situation is horrific and there are no good guys, just bad guys and victims on both sides. I don’t want to see that all over the world.