If a federal election was held today in Germany, the anti-migrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party would pick up more votes than the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), a new poll reveals.
Yeah, you are right. I did not want you to be right :(
Well, I hope I’m also right about my second paragraph: Time plays a role. We also have a snapshot here and it’s likely to change.
Also: me being right doesn’t necessarily mean you’re wrong. The polls do fairly accurately get what voters would do if the election were next Sunday, but the country and the voters change in run-up to an actual election. People are more interested in politics around that time, parties get more vocal about their ideas and there’s more about it in the media. All of that isn’t good for people who claim to have easy (but useless) ideas for complicated problems. That won’t stop an established demagogic party like the AfD, but I assume (too lazy to relearn R, so take this assumption with a grain of salt, I did not run the numbers), it puts the result closer to long term averages. So it’s indeed unlikely a spike like this will survive until election day. That said, 15% of these people in parliament would be embarrassing enough.
Well, I hope I’m also right about my second paragraph: Time plays a role. We also have a snapshot here and it’s likely to change.
Also: me being right doesn’t necessarily mean you’re wrong. The polls do fairly accurately get what voters would do if the election were next Sunday, but the country and the voters change in run-up to an actual election. People are more interested in politics around that time, parties get more vocal about their ideas and there’s more about it in the media. All of that isn’t good for people who claim to have easy (but useless) ideas for complicated problems. That won’t stop an established demagogic party like the AfD, but I assume (too lazy to relearn R, so take this assumption with a grain of salt, I did not run the numbers), it puts the result closer to long term averages. So it’s indeed unlikely a spike like this will survive until election day. That said, 15% of these people in parliament would be embarrassing enough.
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