The last time this happened, voters didn’t credit Bill Clinton. That may be a bad omen, or a good one.

If the stock market chose presidents, Joe Biden would be a shoo-in for reelection in 2024. The market rallied this month amid growing optimism about the economy, with the S&P 500 zooming 1.9 percent Tuesday on news that the consumer price index rose only 3.2 percent in October (compared to 3.7 percent in September). Stocks rallied again Wednesday on news that the producer price index fell 0.5 percent. Commentators are no longer debating whether the economy will experience a “soft landing” (i.e., a reduction in inflation without recession). The only question now is when it will arrive. The S&P 500 seems to have decided it’s already here.

But the stock market doesn’t choose presidents. Voters do, and polls continue to show they think the economy is in terrible shape. A Financial Times–Michigan Ross Nationwide Survey conducted November 2–7 is absolutely brutal on this point.

  • iBaz@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    But grocery receipts are not an indicator of inflation, only of corporate greed and record profits. The Democrats need to a better job pointing the blame where it really lies.

    • jeffw@lemmy.world
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      I think one caveat here (and I’m not disagreeing with you, just adding a bit of clarification) is that the grocery stores aren’t the ones engaging in this. Generally, they have pretty tight profit margins. The massive growth of Aldi and other discount grocers in the USA over the past 10-20 years has made the profit margins remain tight. It’s the upstream producers where you see more of the greed.

      Most people reading this probably haven’t even heard of a company like Cargill, even though they control a massive chunk of your meat.

      Edit: maybe I should have said they produce most of your meat (or the plurality, not sure the exact numbers. They’re the biggest in North American beef, maybe other meats too)

      • toasteecup@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        I work in the corporate office for a grocery, you’re not wrong at all chief.

        This entire year one of our biggest corporate goals has been how to either drive down prices for our customers or how to increase value for them so that they’ll feel their dollar went further.

        • Mog_fanatic@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          welllll they done gone and shit the bed on that one! Lol prices are higher than ever and I feel like my dollar is worth about as much as a turd these days and it doesn’t seem like it’s getting any better.

      • WalrusDragonOnABike@kbin.social
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        Most people reading this probably haven’t even heard of a company like Cargill, even though they control a massive chunk of your meat.

        Kinda curious what percert do. Fediverse isn’t exactly a random sample. I’d imagine it was be a small minority of the general population who know that. Honestly mostly only became aware of Cargill because of how much of the Venezuela food market they used to control (and the possible abuse of that position).

      • iBaz@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        Yes, grocery chains costs are up, but so are profits. Just looking at a couple of the largest in the US, Publix and Kroger, in their annual earnings they both reported around $500,000,000.00 in profit over the previous year (FY 2022 vs 2021). Are they in business to make profits, yes, but for consumers to go to the supermarket and say inflation is killing them is mainly ignorance.

        • jeffw@lemmy.world
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          Revenue is not profit. You’re quoting revenue to make the situation look more extreme than it is. That number is not profit. You’re also cherrypicking a top performer instead of looking at industry trends. Publix, in my experience (only visit the south, don’t live there), is a higher end store.

          Kroger lost money this quarter. Profit was negative.

          It’s also not so straightforward for a number of reasons. Grocery consolidation is way up, so operating revenues go up because there are more stores in each brand’s portfolio. You’re also looking at an industry heavily impacted by the pandemic (certain chains like Walmart and Amazon saw more grocery growth during the pandemic for obvious reasons)

    • FuglyDuck@lemmy.world
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      But grocery receipts are not an indicator of inflation, only of corporate greed and record profits. The Democrats need to a better job pointing the blame where it really lies.

      what do you think “inflation” means to consumers? it’s the increase over time of the cost of the things they buy. Nobody cares if it’s coming from corporate greed or climate change or whatever else. They only care that they’ve already been living pay check to pay check and now they’re cutting back on food into ever more shitty options.

      or housing. or any of a dozen other necessary-to-live things.

      • squiblet@kbin.social
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        1 year ago

        That’s fine but it has fuck-all to do with Biden’s policies and it’s beyond any President to change those things. It’s like when people judge a president by the price of gas during the administration. The reasons housing and food are expensive as fuck currently is

        • lack of meaningful and timely wage increases for decades
        • interest rates and other trends that were due to Covid response
        • massive price gouging by cuntbag rich people

        Maybe “nobody cares if it’s coming from corporate greed” but that’s just basically saying voters are incredibly stupid. It’s rather unwise to blame it on Biden, vote him out, and then get a Republican (especially the unholy moron in the lead currently) who will do absolutely worse about the real issues in every way possible.

        • FuglyDuck@lemmy.world
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          I dunno, he certainly could go after monopolies, breaking up companies like walmart, kroger, cargil, and amazon, and all the other joints that have the power to fix prices… he could also direct the US DOJ to go after price gouging and other anti-competitive practices that absolutely are illegal, work out more favorable trade deals (a lot of produce comes up from Mexico, for example avocados and tomatoes); and he could work with congress to bring SNAP benefits to more people; or increase SNAP benefits to people already on it.

          lack of meaningful and timely wage increases for decades

          Gee, if only there was some way to mandate some sort of guaranteed wage… maybe we could call it a minimum… wage… yeah he’d have to work with congress to get that done. But that’s… kinda part of his job.

          interest rates and other trends that were due to Covid response the interest rates that were predicated on fucking over the same wages we just talked about? the wages that… for the vast majority of americans… have been stagnant. kinda makes you go… ‘HMMM’, doesn’t it?

          massive price gouging by cuntbag rich people

          maybe they should make federal laws against price gouging, huh? sounds like something a president might be able to work on (most states have laws against price gouging, however)

          • squiblet@kbin.social
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            1 year ago

            The problem is that those things are quite complicated legislatively and politically, and/or are the purview of Congress, not the executive branch. And true, Democrats could be much better on minimum wage and restraining big business. But so what, as usual - you’re going to elect a Republican instead, when they’re much worse on all of those issues?

            • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
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              The problem is that those things are quite complicated legislatively and politically

              “These things are too complicated” when it’s something that might help people. Not a concern when building Trump’s wall for him or shoveling money to the IDF.

            • FuglyDuck@lemmy.world
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              “oh pity poor me, I can’t do ANYTHING!” is a bad look for a president. He’s done a fair bit, most of it is of the ‘taking care of business’ variety.

              Yes, he needs to work with congress- that’s part of his job. I’m not asking him to do anything that isn’t part of being… you know… the president. Just because he’s better than a field of alternatives, doesn’t mean he’s not also worse than… I don’t know, a progressive democrat? By and large, the president sets the political course for his party; at least while in office.

              but again, there’s things he CAN be doing. Like, going after monopolies; breaking up companies that are much too large- actions that increase competition and bring direct price actions. they can go after people for unfair (or fraudulent) practices in the sectors hurting people most. Instead hes focused on… ticketmaster… and airlines. yeah, they’re scummy companies. they should be dealt with. What about Kroger, Cargill, Nestle. Student loans. predatory landlords.

              There’s a lot that Biden could be doing. Or more specifically, directing his federal agencies to be doing.

              • squiblet@kbin.social
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                The FTC just wrapped up a major antitrust suit against Google. Not sure how you missed that one.

                But anyway, could Biden be less of a corporate Democrat and work more effectively as a populist? Sure. I’m not sure who you think was disagreeing with that. As far as breaking up large corporations in 5 different industries all at once though, and taking executive action on duties of the legislative branch, I think you’re expecting a bit much, which is not even remotely the same thing as “pity me I can’t do anything”.

                • kmaismith@lemm.ee
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                  I think this thread has lost sight of the original argument. We shouldn’t elect a republican because breaking up a monopoly is so politically complicated that we know they cannot pull it off, therefore any republican promise to do so should be treated as a farce.

              • Flying Squid@lemmy.world
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                Yes, he needs to work with congress- that’s part of his job.

                They don’t want to work with him. Or have you forgotten that the only Republican goal anymore is “own the libs?”

                • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
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                  1 year ago

                  He ran on being able to work with them. Which was a giant crock of shit, just like all the “he’s the most progressive evar” nonsense we’re expected to buy now.

                  • squiblet@kbin.social
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                    Who would have believed that? Republicans supporting a Democratic president and helping pass legislation? It was hard enough to get Manchin, a supposed Democrat, to go along with it and typically zero Republican senators will.

          • SCB@lemmy.world
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            lack of meaningful and timely wage increases for decades

            Gee, if only there was some way to mandate some sort of guaranteed wage… maybe we could call it a minimum… wage… yeah he’d have to work with congress to get that done. But that’s… kinda part of his job.

            1.4% of Americans are on minimum wage so I’m not sure this will have the impact you think it will.

            I dunno, he certainly could go after monopolies, breaking up companies like walmart, kroger, cargil, and amazon, and all the other joints that have the power to fix prices

            This is going to need some proof.

        • WalrusDragonOnABike@kbin.social
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          but that’s just basically saying voters are incredibly stupid.

          Is there something wrong with that? Voters elected Trump with the help of the electoral college. Over the last several decades, they’re the ones who repeatedly voted in people who’ve enacted policies that have lead to the trend of lack of wage increases and increased regulatory capture that has allowed the current inflation problems.

          Why can’t the conclusion simply be voters are stupid, so they’ll make decisions based on whims and feels that may not have a strong connection to the policies of the specific person?

    • stewie3128@lemmy.ml
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      1 year ago

      The Democrats need to do a better job at giving people the money they need to get what they need, and controlling the out-of-control plutocrats wringing every last bit of spare change from the rest of us.

      “Ok GOP, we’ll cut our yearly deficit by 60% just by only giving the welfare queen confederate states $1 back for every dollar they contribute in taxes, instead of the $6 that South Carolina gets. Pull yourselves up by your bootstraps and start turning a profit.”

      “Hey, Joe Manchin: if you don’t offer your full-throated support to Build Back Better, we’re cutting off all Federal aid and investment in West Virginia, and we’re going to run nonstop ads telling your constituents why. Also, we’re going to break up your daughter’s pharma company.”

      Time for some LBJ shit. But they’ll never do it, because they’re actually conservatives too.