Federal forecasters are doubling chances of a nasty Atlantic hurricane season this summer and fall. Thursday's forecast update by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration increased the chance for an above average storm season to 60%, which is twice the agency's May forecast.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/3002045

Record hot ocean temperatures and a tardy El Nino are doubling the chances of a nasty Atlantic hurricane season this summer and fall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

  • AutoTL;DR@lemmings.worldBEnglish
    3·
    1 year ago

    This is the best summary I could come up with:

    A key measurement called Accumulated Cyclone Energy — which takes into account number of storms, how strong they are and how long they last — is forecast to be double the normal for a year, NOAA said.

    The continued record warm temperatures in the North Atlantic, which is connected to climate change, is a key factor in increasing the prediction because it is hotter and lasted longer than initially expected, Rosencrans said.

    The water temperatures in the main storm development region — an area between the western tip of Africa and the Caribbean — is 2.2 degrees (1.2 Celsius) above normal and the hottest since records started in 1950, he said.

    But even though El Nino is going strong in the Pacific, its effects in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic aren’t showing up yet.

    Earlier this year meteorologists saw this hurricane season as a showdown in strength between the record hot water that increases storm activity and the dampening power of El Nino.

    The hot water is winning, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy, who said NOAA’s forecast makes sense.

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