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Cake day: March 16th, 2024

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  • It’s not endemic yet because it continues to mutate, and while vaccinations reduce how many people die, they do not equate to immunity, meaning infection rates continue to be unstable. It won’t hit endemic until the numbers are predictable, and that hasn’t happened yet.

    Vaccinations also do not provide much in terms of protection from long covid. I would argue while the acute phase of covid may be working towards becoming endemic, the post-Covid condition is not. 11% of covid infections become long covid (that’s vaccinated and not combined) and 25% of those never go away. On top of this, risk of long covid increases every time someone contracts covid,as does the risk of it being permanent. So with no mitigations in place, we are pushing towards a mass disabling event that none of the health centres, governments, etc. are talking about.



  • Can you provide me with the studies saying something different? It’s hard to speak to a theoretical.

    And many in what way? Personal experience, a mass meta analysis of treatments? There is some data (again; always need more) showing that more than half of the children who express some level of gender nonconformity will eventually settle on identifying with their gender assigned at birth. This aligns with our overall understanding of how children learn who they are: trying on new identity “hats” to find the ones that fit. We also have evidence that even having a single person using a trans youth’s chosen name results in a 29% decrease in suicidal ideation, and a 56% decrease in suicidal behavior. For the youth who are cis, it at worst makes no difference, at best communicates that they have support while they figure out who they are. So I would argue that it’s the time taken for a youth to explore their gender and figure out what’s correct, that actually provides a “cure for dysphoria”, rather than puberty itself. In fact, a US survey of nearly 28,000 trans respondents found that for those between kindergarten and 8th grade (5 - 14 years old), those who were out as, or perceived to be trans, 54% were verbally harassed, 24% were physically assaulted, and 13% were sexually assaulted; 17% left school because of maltreatment. So what you’re interpreting as youth being cured, is more likely them going back into the closet to avoid being harassed.


  • Randomised Controlled trials like you’re asking for are neither ethical nor practical in this situation. Even the Cass report stated that. Patients and doctors will know PDQ whether puberty is happening or not.

    You’re right that more data is needed. More data is always needed, especially on anything regarding a marginalised group. And, in many of these situations where we know the outcome of puberty is irreversible, makes transitioning afterwards more difficult, with a decent threat of mental health decline without the treatment, waiting around and doing nothing is more harmful than pausing puberty temporarily, where, based on the 30 years worth of research done for puberty blockers to treat precocious puberty, we see the most likely risks are for them to wind up a little shorter than they might have, and maybe fatter.

    If you’re worried the teenagers receiving this treatment may become sterile, the above linked precocious puberty article found no evidence, but here’s an article on a recent study where they used a placebo on rats (because, again, we’ll never have a randomised controlled trial done on humans). It adds to the body of data that shows reproductive activity returns to normal very quickly after stopping treatment, for the teens who do discover they’re OK with their assigned gender identity. We also shouldn’t ignore the good percentage of teens who realise they are trans, and benefit from this in more ways than just buying time.