You’re thinking about the support figure wrong I think. 54% put him as the first choice. I very much doubt 46% of Republicans wouldn’t vote for him at all, he’s just not the top of their list.
As an aside I’d be surprised if a similar poll on the Dems side would have anyone over 30% support. Most would absolutely vote for Biden but he’s not many peoples first hand choice for president out of the potential candidates from the Dem side. Still might be the individual with most support though.
So as another poster pointed out, Biden’s number is 65%.
To the broader point, I do get that this poll is asking Republicans who they would support in the primary, not whether they’d vote for Trump in the general. I guess what I’m saying is, I see this as 45% of Republicans who don’t want to vote for Trump in the primary (with the overlap of people who are sensible enough not to want Trump, but do want DeSantis for some godforsaken reason, being pretty small.) Then, 78% of Republicans who do acknowledge the factual reality that Trump committed serious crimes, don’t want to vote for him as a result.
I argue that the situation isn’t the same for the Dems what with not putting Biden up for re-election would be very unexpected and as such only really Kennedy has stood up as a “potential candidate”. But I concede that I was wrong given that you both interpreted what I wrote differently from how I thought, and what you understood has been disproven.
Those who won’t vote for him in the primary will likely still vote for him in the general is my main point. Republicans always fall in line and there is little to indicate this time will be different. The people who would vote for DeSantis but at the same time would abstain from voting for Trump meaning improving the Dems chances must be in the single digits. Also those 78% aren’t a big share of Republicans as a whole and further many of those likely are DeSantis supporters. The bottom line is Trump still has mind boggling support from Republican voters.
You’re thinking about the support figure wrong I think. 54% put him as the first choice. I very much doubt 46% of Republicans wouldn’t vote for him at all, he’s just not the top of their list.
As an aside I’d be surprised if a similar poll on the Dems side would have anyone over 30% support. Most would absolutely vote for Biden but he’s not many peoples first hand choice for president out of the potential candidates from the Dem side. Still might be the individual with most support though.
Your point is good about primary vs general voting, but 538 has a poll up for the Dems.
Only Biden and Kennedy are listed. It’s 65.1% to 14.9% respectively.
That’s how bad a candidate Kennedy is. But is also likely good news for keeping nut jobs out of the White House. A
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Dems and billionaire spoiler candidates. Name a more iconic duo.
So as another poster pointed out, Biden’s number is 65%.
To the broader point, I do get that this poll is asking Republicans who they would support in the primary, not whether they’d vote for Trump in the general. I guess what I’m saying is, I see this as 45% of Republicans who don’t want to vote for Trump in the primary (with the overlap of people who are sensible enough not to want Trump, but do want DeSantis for some godforsaken reason, being pretty small.) Then, 78% of Republicans who do acknowledge the factual reality that Trump committed serious crimes, don’t want to vote for him as a result.
I argue that the situation isn’t the same for the Dems what with not putting Biden up for re-election would be very unexpected and as such only really Kennedy has stood up as a “potential candidate”. But I concede that I was wrong given that you both interpreted what I wrote differently from how I thought, and what you understood has been disproven.
Those who won’t vote for him in the primary will likely still vote for him in the general is my main point. Republicans always fall in line and there is little to indicate this time will be different. The people who would vote for DeSantis but at the same time would abstain from voting for Trump meaning improving the Dems chances must be in the single digits. Also those 78% aren’t a big share of Republicans as a whole and further many of those likely are DeSantis supporters. The bottom line is Trump still has mind boggling support from Republican voters.