The technical summaries are still ultra-conservative in their predictions and whilst their latest updates finally factor in some tipping points, the vast majority are left out to avoid alarm. To give you just one example, they predict the AMOC will not collapse before 2100. Take a look at the current North Atlantic temperatures and tell me in good faith that this is a sensible prediction.
They represent a consensus summary of the published academic literature from before the cutoff date. A study which came out after the last report is naturally not included.
I mean the graphic you posted is literally entitled “Potential contribution to net emissions reduction, 2030”. And I think you vastly underestimate what it would take to sequest enough carbon to make any kind of difference.
They’re literally about emissions reduction, and quantifying it. Getting the maximum reduction would mean something like a WWII-style mobilization. I don’t think I’m underestimating that.
Oh naturally, I think you’ve hit the nail on the head there. Tell me, how does one conduct a scientific study on feedback loops which haven’t happened yet? Then tell me how many peers would be willing to risk their funding to verify such a pessimistic prediction?
I know they’re about emissions reduction, I didn’t say they weren’t and I don’t understand your point. All I’m saying is that it’s all well and good stating what we need but the feasibly of implementation is laughable.
I suggest you look into the resources required to extract the smallest amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. To quote Dr Hugh Hunt of Cambridge…
We don’t do anything on this planet at that scale. We don’t manufacture food on that scale, we don’t mine iron ore on that scale, we don’t even produce oil, coal, or gas on that scale.
Completely agree with you re the WWII mobilisation. That would require every government in the world to work together in actively worsening the lives of their citizens. Not exactly a vote winner is it?
You model them. A great example was the ice-albedo feedback, where you could measure the albedo of ice, and the albedo of open water and bare ground, and reach clear conclusions about how losing ice would create differential warming in the arctic.
And yet still the ice is melting faster than expected and faster than that model predicted, because, as you explain, the models are inaccurate (overly conservative in nature as all scientific studies on complex systems tend to be).
Ice sheet dynamics have been an area where scientists haven’t converged on agreed-upon models. So yes, not everything gets there, but an awful lot does. As I said above, enough to be useful.
It’s more complicated than that. The temperature modeling is roughly right. Secondary effects aren’t as well modeled, and surprise is a lot more likely there.
Yes it’s obviously way more complex than that. For instance, there are a lot of additional warming factors that haven’t been included in current studies or “suprises” to use your euphimism.
They represent a consensus summary of the published academic literature from before the cutoff date. A study which came out after the last report is naturally not included.
They’re literally about emissions reduction, and quantifying it. Getting the maximum reduction would mean something like a WWII-style mobilization. I don’t think I’m underestimating that.
Oh naturally, I think you’ve hit the nail on the head there. Tell me, how does one conduct a scientific study on feedback loops which haven’t happened yet? Then tell me how many peers would be willing to risk their funding to verify such a pessimistic prediction?
I know they’re about emissions reduction, I didn’t say they weren’t and I don’t understand your point. All I’m saying is that it’s all well and good stating what we need but the feasibly of implementation is laughable.
I suggest you look into the resources required to extract the smallest amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. To quote Dr Hugh Hunt of Cambridge…
Completely agree with you re the WWII mobilisation. That would require every government in the world to work together in actively worsening the lives of their citizens. Not exactly a vote winner is it?
You model them. A great example was the ice-albedo feedback, where you could measure the albedo of ice, and the albedo of open water and bare ground, and reach clear conclusions about how losing ice would create differential warming in the arctic.
The modeling work won’t ever be perfect, but it’s good enough to have incredible predictive power.
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
And yet still the ice is melting faster than expected and faster than that model predicted, because, as you explain, the models are inaccurate (overly conservative in nature as all scientific studies on complex systems tend to be).
Ice sheet dynamics have been an area where scientists haven’t converged on agreed-upon models. So yes, not everything gets there, but an awful lot does. As I said above, enough to be useful.
You seem to keep supporting my point.
The models are conservative, the peer review process is long and we’re rapidly running out of time.
It’s more complicated than that. The temperature modeling is roughly right. Secondary effects aren’t as well modeled, and surprise is a lot more likely there.
Yes it’s obviously way more complex than that. For instance, there are a lot of additional warming factors that haven’t been included in current studies or “suprises” to use your euphimism.
The big ones we expect to play a role in the next few decades are in there though. That’s enough to be pretty useful.