cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/21676181
Help make this the year that Texas flips for senate and or for president!
I went to vote yesterday and found a line wrapped around the building which usually has a line of only 10-20 people out the door. I’ll have to try again tomorrow, but wow!
Does trump have a chance if he loses texas?
[e]Found a dynamic map you can play with: https://www.270towin.com/
States don’t vote in a vacuum, in any scenario where Trump loses Texas he also loses closer states.
There’s technically a mathematical possibility but if he loses Texas, his campaign is completely over
To expand on this slightly, if Harris wins Texas, that plus the blue states puts her at 266. Any one swing state would be enough to put her past 270, even Nevada which has only 6 electoral votes. So unless Trump can flip a blue state, he would have to win all the swing states.
While that scenario isn’t impossible, it’s extremely unlikely that Texas would have such a huge and unexpected surge for the Democrats while they are simultaneously having a disastrous performance everywhere else. It’s not like the Harris campaign has been dumping all of its resources into Texas, quite the opposite.
Yeah if Texas goes blue a lot of other closer states are blue too
Meanwhile, Trump will blame Haitians for these results.
Short answer is yes. We don’t need a marginal difference, we need to be blue in lots of swing states.
That would be the funniest shit, especially after a buildup like it has been.
I’m absolutely not going to bank on it, but holy shit, can you imagine the shitshow in the GOP if Texas goes blue? Like… jesus. I think that’d actually sink the modern GOP entirely.
Its been sorta expected to happen eventually. Texas is only not a swing state because of things like voter suppression. There’s only 6 states with worse turnout than Texas. If Texas had the turnout of Minnesota, it might just be a blue state.
As if the GOP has any sense of introspection.
Intended to vote yesterday, but something came up and I couldn’t. Voted today. Longest lines I’ve seen at a polling place for early voting.
I know it’s anecdote, but I’m hopeful.
Mine was really long too, and was full of a lot of women there on their own. I hope that the taking of their autonomy and rights was enough to get a lot of them out there to boost our numbers.
Huh, everytime Ive early voted, the lines have been minimal. Voted yesterday and there was no line, but plenty of ppl voting. When I had to vote during election day it was 45 minutes.
I voted yesterday and it was crazy busy. The absolute busiest early voting I’ve ever seen.
A bit worrying to hear so many stories of lines for early voting. I get how it’s also a good sign, but… It shouldn’t really be necessary to wait in line? If it’s bad already, won’t election day be a disaster? Are lines equally long in Republican areas?
A few years back the GOP closed a bunch of polling places in blue areas. It’s flagrant voter suppression.
My wife waited an hour and a friend of hers waited 2 hours to vote. She also heard several stories of people passing out in line. It’s disgraceful. This is absolutely driving down participation. I’m sure the state GOP would even say if you can’t stand in a line for over an hour while it’s sunny and high 80s maybe you just don’t care about voting that much.
Ugh. I’m always so thankful that Colorado has had mail-in voting for so long.
It should be mandated at the Federal level that every state is this free. A voting system that works to actively discourage voting is a disgrace to this nation.
There are usually fewer early voting locations compared to election day so with record turnout, the lines have been longer
Republican areas tend to be less densely populated, so the number of people to voting locations ratio makes lines there generally less long
You skipped the part where Republicans closed polling locations in Democrat-leaning areas. The lines are intentional on election day.
That too certainly :(
Personally I’ve never had any issues with lines despite living in a heavily blue district. It’s worth noting that as election day gets closer more early voting locations open, voting the first day of early voting sounds like a bad idea in terms of lines. Obviously this isn’t going to be the case for every district, but when only a handful of places are open for the first day of early voting it’s inevitable they’ll be packed.
I personally have bigger issues with the fact that the majority of polling locations are churches and that political signage is allowed outside of them.
Democratic voters in Texas expect to find dirty tricks and voter suppression when they come out to vote. So they want to complete the process earlier, to leave them some backup and contingency options.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that Texas is about to flip on this cycle.
We’re not possibly going to flip but hopefully with abortion now restricted we’ll be closer to a swing state than in quite a while. The biggest problem is how heavily gerrymandered the state is, there are some crazy looking districts to get some parts of urban areas to vote red. A simple majority of votes really won’t do it in the state of Texas.
If nothing else, Texas could finally oust Ted Cruz…
Don’t give me hope. I mean, yeah, I voted for Allred today but still. It’s a lot closer of an election than it should be considering how Cruz has acted during his tenure
As a powerless outsider, I can only hope.
America has let me down so many times in the past, yet I still hope…
You can’t gerrymander a statewide election like US Senator or President. Those are total number of votes across all voters in the state. The state senators and representatives are definitely gerrymandering.
It’s also possible for Texas to go blue this election. Hillary needed 800,000 votes (5% of the registered voters) and Biden needed 630,000 votes (3.5% of the registered voters). It’s been really close the last couple presidential elections and Beto was really close to ousting Cruz in 2018.
Don’t forget, Biden won more votes in TX than he did in NY and Trump received less votes in TX than CA in 2020. We can definitely flip this year, we just need a large turnout. Historically speaking, Dems win with large voter turnout out and we are breaking records this year.
thats something that should have zero relevance in any election. if you live within a hundred miles of a post you should be able to vote on that post regardless if your “district” is outside of it
How many votes did we lose by last time?
About 640k votes, 46.5% to 52.1%. It’s a tough hurdle, as he won that same percentage in 2016, although Clinton only had 43.5% and a third party probably ate some of Trump’s votes.
He’ll likely win, but by less. Its a pretty big margin, even if Trump openly pisses on military graves while Harris is a proud owner of a glock.
Note that the Senate race was closer last time in 2018 and is also closer in the polls. In 2018 that was 50.9% Cruz to 48.4% Beto (2.5% margin, ~200k votes)
That’s certainly true. You know, if Texas does flip for Harris I won’t just be overjoyed, I’ll have to reevaluate the whole state (which isn’t Texas fault; literally, all my exes are from Texas-- heartbreak can certainly sour a state!)
Clinton lost by 800,000 votes (5% of registered voters) and Biden by 640,000 votes(3.5% of registered voters). It has been getting much closer. We could flip this year if voter turnout keeps this pace.
I voted yesterday about 630 in Denton county. We waited in line for about 10 minutes. My kids voted in Addison yesterday - no line.
yep.
My concern with early voting is it’ll make it easier for them to target democratic voters, especially if the numbers are that skewed.
What do you mean by this? Who is targeting them and in what way?
Texas, specifically, passed a law since the last election that lets them throw away votes from
democratic areasareas with ‘issues.’ It basically only targets a specific democratic area right now, but I would put the chances of them using it well above 50%.Republicans who’ve been mobilizing to challenge ballots and election outcomes for months. Who have for years, been unashamed, to target and diminish democratic voting power. Who seem all but ready to destroy democracy and install Donald Trump as king.
What does early voting have to do with this though?
What is it about a ballot cast now that is more vulnerable than one cast on November 5th
I’m just concerned. MAGA is going to ratfuck this election, wherever they think they can get away with it, and I’m just concerned that democrats are voting in easy to identify patterns that can be targeted.
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