• Jojo@lemm.ee
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    9 months ago

    You think that even in the hundred-door case? Test it. Hell, even test it in the 3 door case. It is empirically not 50%.

    If the host had an even chance to show you either door, you’d be right, but since the host always shows you a goat, the two events (picking a door and choosing whether to switch) are no longer independent, since if you pick a goat it forces the host to pick the other goat.