"Map of Russian fortification lines on the Zaporozhye front. --- The will-they-won't-they between Russia and Ukraine on the Zaporozhye front seems like it will never stop, as the counteroffensive is delayed, and delayed, and delayed again. However, the messaging from the Ukrainian government is inconsistent - at the same time that some officials announce that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is imminent, others announce that more weaponry and ammunition is needed. If this is a disinformation operation, it doesn't appear that the Russians are taking it particularly seriously. For months now, Rogov (the head of Russia-controlled Zaporozhye region) and others have repeatedly said that all the predictions of dates in the western media and by the Ukrainian government is propaganda designed to make Russia confused or complacent, and they are not falling for it and are constantly preparing for any eventuality. The latest blows in the conflict have come in the last day or two, with Ukraine sending some of its forces forward on the fronts (in both Zaporozhye and the Donbass). These seem to be larger than a reconnaissance in force, but smaller than what we would typically imagine a counteroffensive to look like. So far the gains by Ukraine, such that they exist, are limited to villages on the front, and Russia is reclaiming some of these as I write this. Perhaps the main blow will indeed shortly come, and/or perhaps this was just another test to try and find a weak point to exploit. I suspect that Ukraine will fire its arrow and then paint a bullseye around it if it fails to push Russia back to Tokmak, let alone to Melitopol and beyond. Already, Budanov has said that [psychologically, Ukraine has already taken Crimea and this is an unconditional victory for the army](https://www.hexbear.net/post/269737/comment/3498651). Therefore, whether any particular attack is The Counteroffensive or just a prank bro is largely dependent on whether it's successful or not - hence this week's title. Equally, one should never underestimate the famed Russian patriotic offensive technique where you advance forwards in the direction of your country instead of towards your enemy, better known in military terminology as "running the fuck away," exemplified by what happened at Kharkov and Kherson. --- Here is the [map](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg) of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia. Here is the [archive](https://bulletins.hexbear.net/post/essays-effort-archive/) of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we've collected. This week's first update is [here](https://www.hexbear.net/post/270887/comment/3504617) in the comments. ::: spoiler Links and Stuff --- [Want to contribute?](https://git.chapo.chat/hexbear-collective/bulletins/src/branch/main/CONTRIBUTING.md) [RSS Feed](https://bulletins.hexbear.net/index.xml) [Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists](https://leftypol.org/edu/src/1662026001627.webm) [Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict](https://www.hexbear.net/post/177244) Add to the above list if you can, thank you. --- # Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins --- Defense Politics Asia's [youtube channel](https://www.youtube.com/c/DefensePoliticsAsia/videos) and their [map](defensepoliticsasia.com/Ukraine/). I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality. [Moon of Alabama](https://www.moonofalabama.org/), which tends to have decent analysis. Avoid the comment section. [Understanding War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) and the [Saker](http://thesaker.is/): neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery. [Alexander Mercouris](https://www.youtube.com/c/AlexanderMercourisReal/videos), who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis. On the ground: [Patrick Lancaster](https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos), an independent journalist reporting in the warzone. Unedited [videos](https://invidious.snopyta.org/channel/UCo-P9gyWGjOkdquRBt0zowQ/videos) of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches. --- # Telegram Channels Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage. **Pro-Russian** https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist (but still quite reactionary in terms of gender and sexuality and race, so beware). If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Another big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia's army. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits. **Pro-Ukraine** Almost every Western media outlet. https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord. https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing. --- Last week's [discussion post](https://www.hexbear.net/post/269737). ---"