In Engineering you have two different kinds of failures:
The first is to do with manufacturing flaws and happens in the first couple of months of use, hence how Warranties work - bad part of bad assembly so it breaks on first use or soon after.
The second kind is the device dying from decay due to use, from old age if you will.
Survivor bias, IMHO, only applies for those devices that last beyond the stage were the first kind of failure can happen as it’s kinda random (you can reduce the proportion of devices that fail, but for any one device it’s random if it will be one that fails or not)
So a 3 year old fridge dying is not from manufacturing defects but it’s dying from faster ageing, which is a flaw in the design or a choice of cheaper, lower quality components.
From what I’ve seen that’s exactly what’s been happenning: less robust designs and cheaper components with shorter lifespans, all to save on raw material costs.
Lower manufacturing quality tends to cause the first kind of failures, not the failures well past the first few months.
In Engineering you have two different kinds of failures:
The first is to do with manufacturing flaws and happens in the first couple of months of use, hence how Warranties work - bad part of bad assembly so it breaks on first use or soon after.
The second kind is the device dying from decay due to use, from old age if you will.
Survivor bias, IMHO, only applies for those devices that last beyond the stage were the first kind of failure can happen as it’s kinda random (you can reduce the proportion of devices that fail, but for any one device it’s random if it will be one that fails or not)
So a 3 year old fridge dying is not from manufacturing defects but it’s dying from faster ageing, which is a flaw in the design or a choice of cheaper, lower quality components.
From what I’ve seen that’s exactly what’s been happenning: less robust designs and cheaper components with shorter lifespans, all to save on raw material costs.
Lower manufacturing quality tends to cause the first kind of failures, not the failures well past the first few months.