The last time this happened, voters didn’t credit Bill Clinton. That may be a bad omen, or a good one.

The last time this happened, voters didn’t credit Bill Clinton. That may be a bad omen, or a good one.

If the stock market chose presidents, Joe Biden would be a shoo-in for reelection in 2024. The market rallied this month amid growing optimism about the economy, with the S&P 500 zooming 1.9 percent Tuesday on news that the consumer price index rose only 3.2 percent in October (compared to 3.7 percent in September). Stocks rallied again Wednesday on news that the producer price index fell 0.5 percent. Commentators are no longer debating whether the economy will experience a “soft landing” (i.e., a reduction in inflation without recession). The only question now is when it will arrive. The S&P 500 seems to have decided it’s already here.

But the stock market doesn’t choose presidents. Voters do, and polls continue to show they think the economy is in terrible shape. A Financial Times–Michigan Ross Nationwide Survey conducted November 2–7 is absolutely brutal on this point.

  • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
    62·
    1 year ago

    I’m really sick of this line of reasoning that functionally goes:

    1. Look, you don’t know what you’re talking about, it’s fine, everything’s fine, and despite what your lived experience is telling you, you’re doing great because just look at the charts and the stonks. Yes, okay, you had to cut back on groceries, but did you see the charts? The economy is doing great.

    And when somebody says “hey, this doesn’t align with my experience, can we just acknowledge that things aren’t actually that great and work towards fixing them?” The response is

    1. Ugh, why would you want to vote for Trump?!

    MF, I don’t, but if the people don’t feel seen by Biden, they might not vote for him specifically because of all the tone-deaf paternalistic “stop whining about my economy, you’re fine actually” messaging. It’s kind of a similar vibe to answering “can we not support genocide in Gaza, please?” With “why do you hate Jews?!”. It’s just an attempt to avoid dealing with legitimate criticism while deflecting it back onto the asker. The clinton campaign already tested this strategy in 16, and we all saw how that turned out.

    • SCB@lemmy.world
      21·
      1 year ago

      Look, you don’t know what you’re talking about, it’s fine, everything’s fine

      This is, generally, true on all counts.

      Anyone who doesn’t think avoiding a recession is better than the alternative is not a serious person worth listening to, and there is probably a link between their understanding of economics and their poverty.

      • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
        21·
        1 year ago

        I kinda get the vibe you’re trying to be smarmy. Look, saying “you should be happy you’re not in a recession, stupid” is not effective messaging. If it’s going to take losing this election for you and the DNC to learn that, I’m going to be awfully fucking cross.

        • SCB@lemmy.world
          21·
          1 year ago

          Democrats literally just had a massive series of electoral victories, this month.

          • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
            11·
            1 year ago

            I mean, it’s not like Democrats have never managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory before. I’m just saying, this is shit tier messaging, and when the whole ass republic is at stake, it sure would be nice to see them actually trying instead of phoning it in with shitty messaging because “the other guy is basically Hitler and we’ve been doing pretty well”.