cross-posted from: https://mastodon.online/users/hallenbeck/statuses/111293316231491706
I’ve made an updated graphic based on feedback. Thanks to @nooeh@lemmy.world for the critique. Updated graphic here:
https://thelastboyscout.uk/assets/img/son_xg_stats.webp
Is Son one of the best finishers EVER? Let’s look at some data. 👇
We use actual goals minus expected goals (xG) as a proxy for finishing skill. Players who consistently score more than their xG means they are scoring goals other players would miss. Generally, only the most elite goalscorers *consistently* outperform their xG.
And I can find no player who consistently beats Son. It’s astonishing.
Can you find anyone better at elite level?
The specifics of each company’s algorithm is secret, but the premise of xG itself is well-understood and relatively straightforward: when taking a shot in a certain situation, what is the probability that an average player would score a goal?
The xG that a player racks up during a game is dependent on other players, but this analysis is about xG performance, i.e. how much better they are at scoring goals than that hypothetical average player. By comparing against a common statistical average player, the external factors about teammates are irrelevant.