BagOfHammers@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 1 year agoLock Him Up? A New Poll Has Some Bad News for Trumpwww.politico.comexternal-linkmessage-square21fedilinkarrow-up1224arrow-down116
arrow-up1208arrow-down1external-linkLock Him Up? A New Poll Has Some Bad News for Trumpwww.politico.comBagOfHammers@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 1 year agomessage-square21fedilink
minus-squareHyperreality@kbin.sociallinkfedilinkarrow-up6·1 year agoThey weren’t. Aggregated polling in 2016 gave Trump a 1/3 chance of winning. That’s not low. It’s actually quite likely. Him becoming president was invariably within the margin of error in many polls. Eg. 2016 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ 2020: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/ 2022: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/ The media reporting on polls (and anything scientific for that matter) is universally abysmal, that’s why you mistakenly think otherwise.
minus-squareWagesOf@artemis.camplinkfedilinkarrow-up1·1 year agoThings with a 30% chance of happening occur every day. You should learn how probability works.
They weren’t. Aggregated polling in 2016 gave Trump a 1/3 chance of winning. That’s not low. It’s actually quite likely. Him becoming president was invariably within the margin of error in many polls.
Eg. 2016
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2020:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/
2022:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/
The media reporting on polls (and anything scientific for that matter) is universally abysmal, that’s why you mistakenly think otherwise.
Things with a 30% chance of happening occur every day. You should learn how probability works.