The Wagner Group is likely moving towards a down-sizing and reconfiguration process, largely to save on staff salary expenses at a time of financial pressure.

Since the abortive mutiny of June 2023, the Russian state has acted against some other business interests of Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin. There is a realistic possibility that the Kremlin no longer funds the group.

If the Russian state no longer pays Wagner, the second most plausible paymasters are the Belarusian authorities.

However, the sizable force would be a significant and potentially unwelcome drain on modest Belarusian resources.