Did I read that right that it gives a 15 day lead time??
Figure 3 is the one where they tried different time intervals, ahead or in the past, and came up with 15 days ahead. The fine-tuning of the time parameter to produce 6σ result reminded me of https://xkcd.com/882/, however in the paper they say they’ve applied same parameter to a different dataset from earlier years and can still detect the correlation.
It’s not that cosmic radiation causes earthquakes. Rather, there seems to be a connection between strong earthquakes and Earth’s dynamo flow. This causes the magnetic field to change which in turn influences cosmic radiation.
He emphasizes that the Earth’s magnetic field, a result of eddy currents in our planet’s liquid core, alters the trajectory of primary cosmic radiation’s charged particles.
Therefore, any substantial earthquakes linked to disturbances in the Earth’s dynamo flows would alter the magnetic field, thus impacting the path of primary cosmic radiation. The fallout of these alterations would be apparent in the changes in the counts of secondary cosmic ray particles recorded by ground-based detectors.
[…]
Various statistical techniques applied to the collected data revealed a distinct correlation between alterations in the intensity of secondary cosmic radiation and the collective magnitude of all earthquakes of 4 or more on the Richter scale.
Significantly, this correlation becomes evident only when the cosmic ray data is advanced by 15 days in relation to the seismic data. This revelation brings optimism for the potential to predict imminent earthquakes.
15 days earthquake warning sounds great, but they cannot tell where the Earth will shake:
The cosmic ray intensity and earthquakes correlation is not discernible in location-specific analyses but emerges when global seismic activity is considered. This could imply that cosmic ray intensity changes reveal a phenomenon affecting our planet on a broader scale.
Statistical confidence: > 6 sigma
What kind of tech are you thinking about, little bot? A cosmic raygun to irradiate the Earth’s core and trigger earthquakes that will slide California into the ocean? :D
Anyway, here’s the paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.12310